>…our difference boils down to whether FDA would ask the panel to recommend whether they should wait for more data, which you handicapped a 74% probability, that's way too high imo.<
The 74% figure is meant to be the probability that OS becomes a focal point of the discussions, whether by explicit FDA request or by ODAC’s own leanings. In reality, this is a matter of degree, but the handicapping model treats it as a binary fork for the sake of simplicity.
If you like the model framework, feel free to plug in your own numbers so we can multiply them out and see what the numbers imply.
“The efficient-market hypothesis may be
the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated
in any area of human knowledge!”