>What were Novartis' sales projections for Tyzeka/Sebivo when the drug was approved? When Novartis partnered with IDIX, what do you think were Novartis' expectations for drug sales?<
NVS has never issued sales projections for Tyzeka/Sebivo. (NVS rarely issues sales projections for any drug.) However, I think it’s reasonable to assume that NVS expected at least $500M in peak annual sales when they licensed the drug from IDIX in 2003.
NVS has paid $110M in Tyzeka/Sebivo milestones to IDIX and has spent at least that much on clinical development and pre-launch marketing. That’s why I find the sluggish early sales of the drug mystifying.
“The efficient-market hypothesis may be the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated in any area of human knowledge!”