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Re: bladerunner1717 post# 7213

Saturday, 07/14/2007 5:01:26 PM

Saturday, July 14, 2007 5:01:26 PM

Post# of 57799
[OT] IDIX / Tyzeka sales projections:

>What were Novartis' sales projections for Tyzeka/Sebivo when the drug was approved? When Novartis partnered with IDIX, what do you think were Novartis' expectations for drug sales?<

NVS has never issued sales projections for Tyzeka/Sebivo. (NVS rarely issues sales projections for any drug.) However, I think it’s reasonable to assume that NVS expected at least $500M in peak annual sales when they licensed the drug from IDIX in 2003.

NVS has paid $110M in Tyzeka/Sebivo milestones to IDIX and has spent at least that much on clinical development and pre-launch marketing. That’s why I find the sluggish early sales of the drug mystifying.

“The efficient-market hypothesis may be
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