Biotech Values

[mskatiescarletohara]

Dew...I own TRMS, have for years, know management, excellent R&D group, they know HIV, the Roche alliance is firm.

The analysts are a little upset T-1249 has been put on hold, earnings haven't been met as expected, everything that could go wrong has, all due to the FDA pushing this complex drug through the system to address the advocates, the FDA, the NIH, and HIV patients stranded without hope looking death in the eye. The drug didn't even go before an ADVISORY committee, it was heralded as the NEW HIV wonder drug, and the manufacturing facility wasn't even on line, they were just making enough to address the compassionate use crowd. Roche still hasn't figured out the formulation to make Fuzeon in large batches effectively to reduce manufacturing costs. The insurers don't want to pay for it, it's 20K a year, and marketing a new drug which is not oral is no easy task either. This is what happens when a NEW class of drug gets introduced ahead of time. I saw TRMS's troubles a year ago, and don't expect to yield any return until 2005/06. I am long the stock, and have made money on it.

TRMS/Roche realize that their competitors PGNX and TNOX have HIV-mabs in early stage testing, these drugs potentially can be delivered intravaneously on a bi-weekly basis, yielding same efficacy as Fuzeon or better. The scientists at Roche and TRMS know they need to get into the biologic side of the arena now. They are taking measures to protect their fusion inhibitor franchise by developing another inhibitor which will be competitive by the next five or six years. The analysts DID NOT hear that, they DID NOT hear TRMS/Roche would be announcing a new clinical candidate in the next calendar year. Why would you spend millions of dollars on an early clinical compound when it doesn't meet the technical criteria you wanted....that being a once a month/weekly dosing. I'm glad they are moving on to something else, as an investor I would be thoroughly agitated if did develop this drug further knowing it had the same dosing as their first fusion inhibitor. Biotech is risky, you win some, you lose some.

I expect Adam Feuerstein to do a hatchet job on the company now and I will be accumulating when the price is right. I expect to read more analyst whining today.

HIV-mabs are very viable, patients would adapt to a once a month dosing vs. a handful of daily toxic oral pills.

Did you see the MLNM news, they felt they didn't need to disclose suspending their Phase II colorectal study! LOL!

katie....