>I reserve the right to change my mind as I nail down facts and perform a sim or two. But I would pick a final endpoint after correction by CR of HR>1.40 albeit with fairly wide uncertainty bounds.<
Thanks for your reply; however, I asked for a point estimate. Since you said >1.40, may I put you down for, say, 1.45 (subject to change, of course)?
“The efficient-market hypothesis may be
the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated
in any area of human knowledge!”