Dendreon Corp fka DNDNQ

[croumagnon]

"I am simply pointing out the fallacy in Dew's reasoning and not saying anything about the success probability of D9902b."

And you have succeeded in doing so very well. Dew's arguments in this case remind me of the old adage that "little knowledge is dangerous". Dew is certainly knowledgeable but his prowess at drawing methodical conclusions based on that knowledge is on shaky grounds. He is shooting in the dark like the rest of us but claiming scientific integrity in the process, and that is my problem with him regarding DNDN.

Based on 9901 and 9902a, it is quite reasonable to conclude that 9902b, which is more than double their combined size, has a very decent chance at succeeding. I am sure Dew would agree with that also if it were not for his ego. I think The problem with 9902b was best pointed out by Rancherho and this is why we are all limited in our ability to predict outcomes. Basically, the follow-on treatment for patients in the Provenge arm as well as the placebo arm could have a huge effect on the outcome, and none of us can a priori predict that outcome...