>even Dew agrees that Provenge probably has some efficacy - although he would undoubtedly assign a lower probability than us.<
The question is not whether Provenge works or doesn’t work, but rather how well it works—and this is where program-survival bias is relevant. My point estimate of the true HR of Provenge in the 9902b population is 1.2, which is considerably lower than the ~1.45 that DNDN says the trial is powered for. Regards, Dew
“The efficient-market hypothesis may be
the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated
in any area of human knowledge!”