>The naive answer is 99.8% - since the false positive rate is only 0.2%<
The overwhelming majority of people who are asked give the wrong answer, and this includes practicing physicians. So it’s perhaps not surprising that most biotech investors underestimate or are unaware of program-survival bias.
(Still, most people do get it once it’s explained to them, which is why it surprises me that ocyan doesn’t.)
“The efficient-market hypothesis may be
the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated
in any area of human knowledge!”