anyone betting long on the outcome of 9902b who is not at least somewhat apprehensive about program-survival bias is probably overestimating the likelihood of success.
Some of us do have the ability to compute. So when we invest or not, it's a little less than blind betting. Anyway, do you have any intrinsic definition of "program-survival bias" other than being just a fancy name for "phase-2's don't reliably predict phase-3's"?