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Re: DewDiligence post# 4333

Wednesday, 06/20/2007 9:54:23 PM

Wednesday, June 20, 2007 9:54:23 PM

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anyone betting long on the outcome of 9902b who is not at least somewhat apprehensive about program-survival bias is probably overestimating the likelihood of success.

Some of us do have the ability to compute. So when we invest or not, it's a little less than blind betting. Anyway, do you have any intrinsic definition of "program-survival bias" other than being just a fancy name for "phase-2's don't reliably predict phase-3's"?
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