Biotech Values

[microcapfun]

HGSI – I take it you concur with message #48304. Regards, Dew

Yes, I agree Albuferon won't sell itself. Nevertheless, I still think it has an excellent shot at generating a billion dollars/yr in worldwide revenues in ~4 years solely on the basis of half as frequent dosing. Look what Pegasys and PegIntron did to the non-peg IFN sales. They are 5% market share now, I think.

My belief at present is that neither 900 mcg or 1200 mcg Q 2 weeks Albuferon will have a safety or efficacy advantage (if it still passes the equivalence test in the remaining category), and the Q 4 week dosing will fail (because in that case the trough drug values are *really* quite low, and jacking up the dose sufficiently to fix that may generate ugly side effects). Just my best guess for now.

micro