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Ocyan, Iwfal, Wall, Rancherho, others of this caliber – Sam here

Over on the advocacy board there are lots of things being kicked around.
I am trying to focus on the current best path to Provenge approval – the interim look at the Impact study. Here’s a quote from a recent poster on the interim look:

>> We do not know the p-value threshold assigned to the interim look, but p-values between 0.01 and 0.025 are reasonable guesses. From what we know now, and the statistics, the most likely outcome is that the interim look will show statistically significant evidence that Provenge works. (Of course this is far from a certainty, but the likelihood is more than 50%.)<<

Would one or some of you please step up and tell the rest of us if you think that we really stand a better than 50-50 chance at showing stat sig at the interim look? If not, please take a shot at the percentage.
Thanks again, I am just trying to stay focused on the prize and the known path to it. sam