Wall I am guessing that short interest went further up dramatically today.
Just like after the FDA decision when all were predicting that the shorts were covering, I thought that they were further shorting.
Todays activity is totally perplexing but must be based on misinterpretation. If anything todays news is bad compared to prior possible outcomes. In essence all possibility of some re-interpretation of available data, however slim a chance, is off the table.
Now DNDN is left with the interim or final analysis of 9902B, which they already had an SPA for so the FDA didn't exactly give any ground. If the interim look was positive the FDA should have approved even without the existing filed BLA.
Supplementing the current BLA with the interim data (if sufficiently persuasive) will still mean 2009 at the earliest.
DNDN has no money and a $200 million shelf. Although a partnership or buyout is a possibility I think a secondary is far more likely. In the post FDA debacle CC DNDN stated that they had sufficient funds to get to an interim analysis but would need more funds before reaching a re-filing point. That is a subtle distinction from saying no secondary till after the interim look. A secondary will come well before.
I am pleased for all the long-term holders but I do hope they managed to sell some at the higher prices of the day. I see re-iterations of the downgrades from the usual suspects in the next few days. After all Aschoff simply believes 9902B will fail, his premise that a further trial will be needed will not change.
However, right now DNDN remains too unpredictable, so what do I know, we will probably break 25 tomorrow. I do know that it remains too unpredictable to sensibly invest in currently. The risk ratio changes if we hit the sub 5s/4s again.
Regards
Ego
