Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[drjohn]

God investor was out at $70 and in at $20.

I guess you mean good long term investor, and I guess you are one of those looking in the rear view mirror I timed my Intel sell at $70.00 and repurchased at $20.00 kind of investors.

Investing in Intel has been a no brainier for the long term investor, the same could not be said for AMD. If you bought Intel when it first went public in the mid 80's you could have bought it for like 40 cents and now at $30.00 plus dollars there is no way you could have made that return with bonds,GIC's etc. And Intel is just as safe as a GIC IMHO. If you were lucky enough to have bought AMD at $8.40 when it first went public your investment now is worth like $14.50 you could have done better with a GIC and AMD is not as safe as a GIC. AMD is not a no brainier investment you have to be fortunate enough to time your buys and avoid random earnings warnings.

As for the next semi downturn staring in 2005, well who knows every upcycle is different the last one was fueled by the internet, this one IMHO will be fueled by one billion new consumers entering the low middle class for the first time, and I make no pretense of knowing when the next downturn will come it could be the fall of 2004 could be the spring of 2014.