Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

>> Imcl with a float about 50% larger [than GENR] in the very competitive and getting moreso cancer market is at approx. $40 these days.Does Imcl seem high at this price,<<

Yes, IMCL’s valuation is high unless you believe that Erbitux sales will be astronomical and will remain astronomical despite the coming avalanche of competition. Also, IMCL’s effective share count is more than 50% higher than GENR’s when you add in options as I did in the valuation analysis of GENR.

IMCL rose from the mid-single digits in the fall of 2002 to $40 a share today because it never should have been in single digits in the first place. I bought a lot of IMCL between $5 and $7 (http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&board=7076926&tid=imcl&sid=7076926&acti... and sold at 15, more than doubling my money but missing the post-ASCO run-up. I consider fair value for IMCL to be $20-25, and that takes into account prompt FDA approval.

>> …does Genr have a chance to reach the price level of Imcl? <<

A $40 price for GENR would equate to a $2B+ valuation, so I would say the chance of that happening within the next couple of years is very slim.