kpf, Hmm. How long does an evaluation of a server system take?
Typically for a new architecture and all new applications, 6 months minimum, up to a year. It is no surprise that Intel's sales of Itanium have been slow to materialize since the last upgrade of the processor in the middle of this year. Some companies would have started evaluations with previous Itaniums, but by the numbers sold, not many.
The next six months are the critical ones for the current generation Itanium.
For an Opteron sale, you can shave a few months off because the IS personnel are familiar with the software packages and the general PC server capabilities. They can get up and running with a full set of software in the lab much faster. Opteron servers would need just as much burn-in time as Itanium for that warm and fuzzy feeling before you put live users on a new vendor's hardware. Opteron would be about a 3 to 9 month evaluation, depending on a lot of factors. We should start seeing the results clearly in Q4; in Q3 there was already an acceleration of Opteron server sales, growing a lot faster than Itanium.
On the other hand, if you are ordering a server that is a brand and architecture that you already trust, the evaluation time can be zero.
P.S.: Even if this is not your field, maybe you have some idea of the value of system Intel takes it back after "evaluation".
Most systems that come back from evaluation are distributed to sales and marketing groups. Unless they are scratched, then they go to engineering and QA. In other words, Intel and HP will fill internal users first, the machines will not go on the open market as used. It is better to sell new machines on the open market.
Intel and HP can absorb quite a few of those, I bet! Don't expect to see a writedown for excess returns, but if you do then you will not hear the end of it. :)
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