Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[market_watcher]

It's not that I'm saying don't 'trade the trend', but there are actually many 'trends' depending on one's time frame. Right now, I'm looking to the end of December as my time frame because Zeev thinks that he's identified something significant about the trend for that time frame and I think he makes a strong case. Given that time frame, tomorrow's open is less significant than tomorrow's close, which is less significant than where we end the week, etc.

Morning doji's have moderate reliability according to litwick.com, as opposed to low or high reliability.

If we are up tomorrow, that will confirm a trend change with moderate certainty, i.e. a 34 to 66% chance, but until then, as analysts we need to stay grounded. Seems to me that we're looking at a 50-50 shot(median of 34 to 66) at a change to a real uptrend in the short-term, even if we close up tomorrow.

All in all, this has got to be one of the 'noisiest' events out there. Everyone has a spin on this and the economic and financial reality is probably nowhere near the importance that either side gives it.