Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[mlsoft]

"The global labor arbitrage tells me there’s something new and big going on that will continue to defy the optimistic spin that is now being put on a still very sluggish American labor market."
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Dan...

No surprise, but I agree with Roach and would add that the labor picture is not the only aspect of this "recovery" that I expect to fall well short of the current very optimistic spin. I look for the Christmas selling season to fall well short of the hoped for numbers and that will leave a very large overhang of unsold inventories.

Stores are stocked to the gills with inventory even now, with Christmas nearly upon us (a lot of stores are hard to get around in) and the big inventory build up that gave the surge in GDP and other numbers is not being met with enough buying to take it all down. As the realization that a lot of goods will go unsold sets in, we should begin to see more serious discounting and orders for follow-up inventory and components will be cancelled especially all those double and triple orders placed in fear of coming shortages. The consumer remains tapped out, massively in debt and the employment picture has improved only modestly, at best.

I continue to look for a slowdown starting in Q1 and to be in recession by midyear. The recession could easily be a severe one and will probably be global in nature.

Just my opinion, though.

Thanks as always for sharing your Roach <gg>.

mlsoft