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Re: dougSF30 post# 20340

Friday, 12/12/2003 2:27:30 PM

Friday, December 12, 2003 2:27:30 PM

Post# of 97595
Um, looks like your continuing trends are somewhat at odds with one another. Which trend will continue?

The weekly is the strongest by nature, so it will likely win out. So we are in a short term downtrend, but if you are investing long term, you should take comfort in the fact that on a weekly basis, the stock will 'likely' continue upwards. They keyword is 'likely'. TA tells you nothing about what is going to happen, just what is more likely in the absence of fundamental changes. TA can also point out where a reversal in momentum is likely, although that is more of a guessing game (a 60/40 kind of bet).

I agree analysis can be way overdone, but I don't see any harm in pointing out trends. Momentum is your friend. Fundamentals are always more important.

I always consider fundamentals first in making a trade, and look at momentum second. For instance, the momentum told me to sell everything when AMD crossed $15.50 last week, but I overruled this because I believe in the fundamentals, and my time horizon is longer than a couple of weeks (the weekly momentum is still up). I could have made an exit and reentry and skimmed a few dollars, but it wasn't worth the risk of the unlikely happening.

HailMary

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