The Black Box

[wahz]

I'll save the old info here, fwiw, and change the box and header soon:


This is a no politics board for intermediate to long term traders/investors. This means months to a many year time frame. This board is not for day traders. Posts not directly related to the stock market will be deleted. Fundamental discussion will be encouraged. Discussions based on a time frame of only a few days will be discouraged. Discussions which include ta(more than intraday time frames) and fa will be acceptable. Repeat violators to thse rules will be banned and/or their posts deleted. Posters who repetitively post to attack others views or opinions will be banned and all there posts deleted. Civil discussions are the only discussions that will be tolerated.


The picks here are volatile, if not also very risky. Please read this post: http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=2541081


9/26/04 update. Averaging new money into the following picks for the next 3 weeks. Planning to hold for 18 months:
ALTR
AMAT
CREE
HLIT
JDSU
JNPR
KLAC
LLTC
MRVC
MTSN
MXIM
NOK
NVLS
SMH
SONS
TIVO
UTSI
XLNX
12/16/04 new position tklc 20.27 avg

Foundation picks: Una(now In), Qcom, Sons, Xlnx, Altr, Lltc, Mxim, Nvls, Klac, Amat

--------------------------

Original Picks from summer 2003 or earlier:

FNSR AMCC ITXC(added 12/31/03 arba (1/04)
NENG SCMR MRVC(added 12/31/03 Klac 44.30
AVNX
QCOM EMC IDTC(added 1/8/04) Pmcs 14.12
NOK DGIN MANU utsi 28.9
RFMD MANH xlnx 32.95
JDSU VRSN AUDC (2/6/04) Auo 17.5
BKHM Amat 19.37
NOVL sons (2/11/04)
HLIT CIEN jnpr (2/12/04)

emc shares were from dctm merger. 12/16/04 removing vrts on merger with symantec. afci taken over(tlab). Ascl taken over(ibm)


Link to Bulls charts of our picks:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=2845163

Original Targets highs before 2/1/05:

fnsr 8
neng 16(increased from 10 on 1/22/04)
avnx 11
jdsu 7
afci 33
hlit 18
scmr 12
amcc 14
emc 20
cien 14
manu 20

( fall 04: pushing these targets out to 2006, and cutting target to cien 8, manu 10, scmr 10, neng 10, fnsr 6)

(12/03)Some outrageous Target highs or lows I have a good degree of confidence in between now and before 2010:

vix 8
spx 2200
dow 18000
comp 4000
fnsr 35
cien 50
avnx 50
mrvc 30
jdsu 50
amcc 60
scmr 40
bkhm 20
emc 40
manu 40
neng 50
sons 40 added 8/23/04

(fall 04: lowering dow(15000), spx (1750), eliminating cien target, cutting avnx(20), mrvc(20),jdsu(25),amcc(30), scmr(25),
eliminating bkhm, emc(30),manu(20),neng(20)

(10/5/04: why were so many targets around 40? Because we were looking for a .25 quarter on stocks that were once priced for bankruptcy, but would be growing fast and have good margins. But the optical roll out, and business spending has been grudging. I now expect slower growth but some of the companies are performing much better fundamentally than the others:qcom,vrsn,jnpr,mrvc,emc,jdsu,sons, hlit,scmr)


Augie's long term channel charts:

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=2239589

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=2217057

rfid pick: added una(now in) on 12/09/04