Well, I'm cautiously hopeful about the Aurus buyout. It certainly answers a question I had about why they did their financials with Russian accounting rather than Western. I think the negotiations have been ongoing and Aurus had commitments to meet (audited finances, confirmation of assets by the Russian Ministry of Natural Resources) before any offer could be formalized. Completing a Russian audit I'm sure was considerably faster and cheaper than doing a Western audit. If the buyer is Russian, which I'm 95% certain it will be, then a Russian audit is sufficient.
I think that Aurus was playing it both ways by stating an intention to become reporting. I believe that was the back up plan if the offer wasn't right. I believe it will follow the NDOL script somewhat. I think a price will be quoted that is high compared to the current value, but not unbelievably so. I think a $500 million offer is about the best we could hope for. Depending on the amount of shares (I've heard between 350 and 650 million), that would be between about $.85 and $1.40 a share, but even half of that amount would satisfy me. I agree with you, though, that an all cash offer is not likely to be consumated. I imagine it will turn into a stock deal eventually.
The NDOL history will prevent this from climbing to the same relative % of PPS growth (NDOL climbed to about 70% of the quoted price), but I would not be surprised to see Aurus climb to 40 or 50% (about $.50 a share). I will probably have reached my risk tolerance at that point and will get out.
I do know that the company is real. I have no reason to doubt that the offer is real. My biggest worry in all of this is Aurus's ability to put out timely and complete information. If this climbs into the .20 range on Tuesday, I'll have a tough decision to make. It will drop hard if there is no news before the open on Wednesday. Aurus had given me no reason to trust that they will keep to their own schedule.
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