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Re: 3xBuBu post# 3998

Thursday, 04/12/2007 11:06:27 PM

Thursday, April 12, 2007 11:06:27 PM

Post# of 72997
Market Update 070412
http://biz.yahoo.com/mu/update.html

4:20 pm : After a shaky start, the belief that Wednesday's pullback was overdone sidelined early follow-through selling interest and prompted renewed buying activity that left all three major averages at session highs with noticeable gains.

Before the bell, investors questioned whether the change in views towards the interest-rate outlook following yesterday's release of the FOMC minutes had caused a fundamental shift in underlying sentiment. Throw in an unexpected jump in jobless claims, possibly signaling a softening in the labor market, a handful of retailers warning that April same-store sales will be weak, and the largest rise in import prices since May, and the market had all the makings of another down day.

However, the market eventually gave way to buyers looking for places to park investment dollars.

As evidenced by Railroads turning in the day's best performance, billionaire investor Warren Buffett's recent endorsement of the group seemed as good as any place to start. In fact, the Dow Jones Transportation Average's resilience in the face of oil prices soaring 3%, due largely to another railroad rally, was among the day's most surprising stories and gave Industrials a noticeable boost.

The Health Care sector was also up 1.0% and provided some notable support in the absence of any leadership from the struggling Financials sector. Biotech got a boost as reports that MedImmune (MEDI 43.63 +5.79) was seeking a potential buyer fueled speculation that its peers may also be takeover candidates.

Manor Care (HCR 62.81 +1.13), building on yesterday's buyout-induced 10.6% surge, provided additional sector support. The sector's defensive characteristics, which are largely why we reiterated an Overweight rating on Health Care in late January, also contributed to its outperformance. Dow component Pfizer (PFE 26.46 +0.42), which also ranks among the ten most influential S&P 500 constituents, surged 1.6%.

Fortunately for the bulls, oil's late-day rally finally woke up an Energy sector that was initially ignoring today's early gains in crude. The May contract spiked to session highs near $64/bbl just before the NYMEX closed after Valero Energy (VLO 68.71 1.33) said its fire-damaged McKee facility will not reach full capacity of 170,000 barrels per day this year.

The energy sector's 1.4% advance eventually provided enough leadership for the stock market to help offset the early inflationary concerns sparked by import prices surging 1.7% to 10-month highs. BTK +2.5% DJ30 +68.34 DJTA +1.7% NASDAQ +21.01 NQ100 +0.9% R2K +0.8% SP400 +0.7% SP500 +8.93 XOI +1.6% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1098/1927/1.90 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1108/2177/1.38 bln

3:30 pm : More of the same for stocks as market breadth remains decidedly bullish going into the close. As reflected in the A/D line, advancers on the NYSE now hold a nearly 2-to-1 edge over decliners while those on the Nasdaq hold an 18-to-11 margin.

The ratio of up to down volume paints an even more convincing story for the bulls. However, today's gains, should they hold, will be tested tomorrow ahead of the latest read on inflation at the wholesale level (e.g. PPI) and an earnings report from Dow component General Electric (GE 35.15 +0.20) before the bell. DJ30 +59.08 NASDAQ +17.06 SP500 +7.35 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1170/1808/1.59 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1184/2053/1.15 bln

3:00 pm : Onward and upward remains the driving mantra this afternoon as investors continue to subscribe to the notion that yesterday's pullback, albeit not all that surprising given the Dow's long winning streak, was overdone.

It is worth noting, though, that much of today's broad-based advance is actually being driven by strong gains in a handful of heavily-weighted, large-cap names. Microsoft (MSFT 28.44 +0.33), the most influential stock on the S&P 500, is up 1.2% following upbeat analyst commentary. Fellow Dow components Pfizer (PFE 26.39 +0.35) and Merck (MRK 46.34 +0.69), two of the three largest components in Health Care, are up 1.4% on average. ..DRG +1.1%. DJ30 +65.99 NASDAQ +18.41 SP500 +8.21 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1179/1784/1.45 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1227/2000/1.04 bln

2:30 pm : Within the last 30 minutes oil prices have surged to their highest levels of the day. Crude for May delivery is now up 3.0% near $63.90/bbl heading into the close of trading on the NYMEX after Valero Energy (VLO 68.24 +0.86) said its fire-damaged McKee facility will not reach full capacity of 170,000 barrels per day this year.

Oil was already up about 1.5% after the IEA said OPEC cut output in March to 30.1 mln barrels a day, the lowest level since January 2005. Fortunately for the bulls, oil's latest uptick finally woke up an Energy sector that had yet to take advantage of today's gain in crude. The sector's 1.0% advance so far is providing enough leadership to offset the inflationary potential of what may soon be $64 oil. DJ30 +46.24 NASDAQ +14.41 SP500 +6.14 XOI +1.3% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1152/1800/1.34 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1222/1972/970 mln

2:00 pm : A day after having its eight-day winning streak snapped, the Dow is rebounding nicely and currently holding onto the bulk of its gains today; but it's 50-point advance still leaves it roughly 40 points away from recouping yesterday's pullback and nearly 100 points away from where it closed the day before the global sell-off on February 27.

Of its 30 components, 23 are now trading higher, led by gains of at least 1% from the likes of DD, HON, HPQ, MCD, MRK, MSFT, and PFE. DJ30 +50.61 NASDAQ +18.50 SP500 +6.63 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1103/1818/1.24 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1178/1986/892 mln

1:30 pm : The indices have broken out of their recent ranges within the last 30 minutes. Eight out of 10 sectors are now in positive territory, with Telecom being the latest to turn the corner. Financials more than halving its recent losses has also contributed to the market's latest push.

The ability by the Dow and S&P 500, though, to break through resistance near 12525 and 1445, has exacerbated the momentum that now leaves all three major averages at session highs. DJ30 +52.88 NASDAQ +18.30 SP500 +7.28 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1182/1709/1.11 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1339/1825/802 mln

1:00 pm : Not much has changed since the last update as the major averages settle into a relatively narrow range. Health Care, Industrials, and Technology are still turning in the best performances, averaging intraday gains of 0.7%.

Weakness in Financials, though, continues to prevent a more aggressive push to the upside. REITs are among the day's worst performers for a second straight day. The group was down yesterday after Lehman Brothers said total insider sales volume in Q1 surged about 36% year/year, the highest amount in four years. DJ30 +30.85 NASDAQ +13.60 SP500 +4.00 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1208/1678/1.04 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1385/1758/746 mln

12:30 pm : Investors kick off the afternoon session with a renewed sense of buying interest. Even though market gains remain modest in scope, all three major averages are hitting fresh session highs. The Dow Jones Transportation Average's resilience in the face of oil prices hovering above $63/bbl (+1.6%), fueled by another railroad rally, continues to be among today's most surprising stories.

The Railroads group has soared nearly 9% since Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a 10.9% stake in Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI 91.93 +4.28) and small stakes in two other rails last Friday. It now ranks as today's best performing S&P industry group (+5.3%) and ranks sixth among this year's best performers (+20.7%). DJ30 +32.26 DJTA +1.8% NASDAQ +13.13 SP500 +4.12 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1233/1644/940 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1313/1796/670 mln

12:00 pm : The indices are holding onto small gains midday as investors weigh an update on consumer spending and more takeover talks against renewed inflation risks a day after hopes of a rate cut anytime soon were dashed.

March same-store sales clearly checked in better than expected; but a handful of retailers warning that April sales will be weak has left retailers mixed. With the Fed reiterating its vigilant stance on inflation, a larger-than-expected rise in March import prices of 1.7%, the largest rise in 10 months, and oil prices climbing back above $63/bbl, are also underpinning a cautious tone. Advancers and decliners evenly matched on the NYSE and Nasdaq further underscore the lack of conviction on the part of both buyers and sellers.

The Nasdaq is outpacing its blue-chip counterparts to the upside; but an intraday gain of only 0.3% offers little to get overly excited about. In fact, while the Tech sector erasing early losses is noteworthy and has helped the Nasdaq stay positive, it is worth noting that Biotech (+2.3%) is also playing an integral part behind the largely tech-heavy Composite's modest advance.

MedImmune (MEDI 42.29 +4.45), the best performer on the Nasdaq 100 this morning, is soaring nearly 12% after its board authorized management to explore a possible sale of the company. Manor Care (HCR 64.25 +2.57) tacking a 4.2% advance onto yesterday's buyout-induced 10.6% surge, following an analyst upgrade earmarks Health Care Facilities (+2.4%) as one of today's top performers. The biggest source of support for Health Care, however, has been a 1.0% advance in shares of Pfizer (PFE 26.31 +0.27). The Dow component also ranks among the ten most influential S&P 500 constituents. BTK +1.5% DJ30 +4.60 NASDAQ +7.41 SP500 +1.52 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1412/1420/830 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1594/1500/582 mln

11:30 am : Stocks are still on the offensive but gains on all three major indices remain modest at best as the market begins to lose some steam. Health Care is still turning in the best performance, but the sector's defensive characteristics, which is largely why we reiterated our Overweight rating in late January, is likely contributing to its outperformance.

A recent reversal in Energy, even though oil prices are holding onto the bulk of their intraday gains, and the lack of leadership from the more heavily-weighted Financials sector, are also contributing to a renewed sense of uncertainty behind the sustainability of recent recovery efforts. DJ30 +8.50 NASDAQ +7.41 SP500 +1.18 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1284/1501/694 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1443/1596/470 mln

11:00 am : Buyers continue to show some resolve in face of diminished hopes of a Fed rate cut and rising oil prices. The Dow, despite 18 of its 30 components still posting losses, has now joined the S&P 500 and Nasdaq in positive territory. A more than 1.5% rebound in the S&P 500 Retail Index from its early lows is also helping to improve overall sentiment.

While Technology (+0.4%) erasing its early losses has helped the Nasdaq turn the corner, it is worth noting that the Health Care sector's Biotech component (+2.3%) is also playing an integral part behind the tech-heavy Composite's recent turnaround. MedImmune (MEDI 42.65 +4.81), the best performer on the Nasdaq 100 this morning, is soaring nearly 13% after its board authorized management to explore a possible sale of the company. DJ30 +15.77 NASDAQ +10.13 SP500 +3.11 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1488/1224/560 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1576/1392/362 mln

10:30 am : The major averages are now trading in split fashion, getting a lift from turnarounds in a few key sectors. As evidenced by the Nasdaq now posting a gain, a turnaround in Technology is having a noticeable impact on the market's recent recovery. Sprint Nextel (S 19.74 +0.56) is up 2.9% amid reports that activist shareholder Ralph Whitworth's investment firm has built a $500 mln stake, or nearly 1% stake, in the company.

The Industrials sector has also inched into positive territory, with special emphasis being placed on the transportation group's resilience in the face of a 1.6% surge in oil prices. Railroads (+1.1%) now rank among today's top performers.

DJ30 -2.43 NASDAQ +3.42 SP500 +1.01 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1607/1013/380 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1777/1103/228 mln

10:00 am : The indices are extending their reach to the downside as seven out of 10 economic sectors are now negative. Consumer Discretionary (-0.7%) is pacing the way as investors become cognizant of the fact that April figures stand to be much softer than March. Sector component Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY 39.75 -0.98) topped Wall Street expectations; but its operating margin outlook and slower growth rates have earmarked Home Furnishings as today's worst performing S&P industry group (-2.4%).

The absence of leadership in Financials (-0.6%), following no indication whatsoever yesterday of any imminent rate cut, remains the biggest drag on the broader market. Tech (-0.4%) is also under pressure after disappointing developments out of Research In Motion (RIMM 132.66 -13.36) bring the sector's growth prospects into question. DJ30 -55.99 NASDAQ -9.99 SP500 -4.58 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1682/755/198 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1741/939/86 mln

09:40 am : As expected, stocks opened lower as investors still struggle to digest the reality that the Fed is not about to cut interest rates anytime soon. With the Fed also reiterating its vigilant stance on inflation, a larger-than-expected rise in March import prices of 1.7%, the largest rise in 10 months, and oil prices climbing back above $63/bbl (+1.7%), are adding to the sense of nervousness at the onset of trading.

Not even a plethora of same-store sales clearly checking in better than expected has been enough to lift sentiment since a handful of retailers warned that April sales will be weak. Throw in an unexpected jump in jobless claims to 342,000, the highest level in eight weeks, possibly signaling a softening in labor market, and it's apparent the bears have enough fodder to keep buyers sidelined for the time being.DJ30 -29.39 NASDAQ -3.54 SP500 -1.72 NASDAQ Vol 76 mln NYSE Vol 42 mln

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.0.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.5. Still shaping up to be a lower start for stocks as investors continue to question whether the change in views towards the interest-rate outlook, following yesterday's release of the FOMC minutes, has caused a fundamental shift in underlying sentiment. Meanwhile, with growth prospects throughout Technology coming into question of late, the influential sector will be in focus today following a Q4 shortfall and uninspiring guidance from Research In Motion (RIMM), which also said an informal inquiry into its stock-option practices by the SEC is now a formal probe.

08:33 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.5. The stage is still set for yesterday's pullback to possibly carry over into this morning's open. March same-store sales figures, from the likes of Wal-Mart (WMT), Dillards (DDS), and Gap Inc. (GPS), still checking in well above estimates had recently given the futures market a lift. However, import prices surging a larger than expected 1.7% in March is stirring inflation concerns while initial claims unexpectedly rose 19,000 to 342,000 (consensus 320,000), the highest level in eight weeks.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.0. With dashed hopes for an interest-rate cut still hanging over the market, it's not surprising to see the futures market languishing below fair value and signaling a lower open for equities. With the Fed focused on inflation as a risk for "further policy firming," a 1.2% in oil prices to $62.80/bbl and import prices (8:30 ET) in March expected to rise at the fastest pace this year are also contributing to the negative disposition.

06:16 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.0.



My posting is for my own entertainment, do your own DD before pushing your buy/call button

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