Abet Chichi2

[chichi2]

wavy4jc, it took time to search and think of past and future.

"CC2, I have a question. My first post to the board but have been lurking for a good while. I do remember in the spring/summer timeframe that you and several posters here were anticipating that the DOW would contract to mid 8000 range by year's end. I see it encroaching on the significant 10000.

Question is, do you have a new take on the DOWs future? I do not think anyone last spring ever thought the economy would be ramping up so strongly as it is. I see DOW over 11000 by election day 2004. TIA"
============================================================

I do not normally forecast DOW as i do not use it in my trading, but I did do it for Lana Taylor as she asked about it from time to time.
============================================================

This board was originated in July 7, 2003 so there were no forecasts here by me before that, meaning none for Spring. However, I recall in from April 2003 onward I tended to be more Bullish than most. In particular, I definitely was more Bullish than the Gurus and Analysts were. I really appeared not be be listening to them, to the extent I thought many would think I was overly Bullish.


==============================================================
I was reminded by my daughter within this past month of how strong was my belief system when she sent me this message for me to recall. She sent me this copy of a post i received and my reply... (or i would not have remembered it now)
---------------------------------------------------
Larry's (IdahoTrader) Question:

By: idahotrader
17 May 2003, 01:44 PM EDT Msg. 83597 of 83603
(Msg. is a reply to 83579 by chichi2.)

Chichi2....

I have been reading with great interest your posts and have been impressed by many of your comments and thoughts toward the market. Thank you also for the input that you provide so generously. I have one question (possibly naive) that I would really appreciate your rsponse and perspective to, namely: With all the bad economic news that surround us such as poor earnings, high P/E's, shaky corporate guidance going forward, high federal deficits, state government problems, high unemployment, high personal debt loads, low saving rates, multi country recessions, SARS, ongoing terrorist activities.... I know I have left out more, what do you primarily attribute as a basis for your comment "I not expect October low 2002 to be seen this summer if ever again."? Thank you in advance for your time and thought.

Larry
-----------------------------------------------------

« DRBOB Message list / Reply to msg. / Post new msg. « Older / Newer »
By: chichi2
17 May 2003, 04:25 PM EDT Msg. 83604 of 83604
(This msg. is a reply to 83597 by idahotrader.)
Jump to msg. #

Idahotrader, "Hope." This single word answer could be taken as flip or not with substance but i believe that the human nature to continuously to move toward positive, creative, and productive goals will pull us up and out of this present situation. It is not my personal hope i am talking of, it is the composite Hope of human nature that will succeed.

If you stand now, and look back at one of the worst of all conditions in the U.S. you will think of the economics of the depression. The biggest of all the problems in that time frame was "Lack of Hope". That was what had to be turned around to solve that the general problems of the composite mind, and also the composite living standards including the economy.

Today, i do not see composite the Lack of Hope in the U.S. I do not see composite desparation in the U.S.

What i do see is What I have teased the Board about a Few Times before. To Quote an Old Bud Abbot Lou Costello movie again, when they were in trouble, captured down in a dungeon, Lou said the Key Word, and again the Enormous Guy began his move, saying, "Slowly I Turned.." and he eventually he would grab Lou Costello and shake him until he would come out of his Trance.

The Key Word in this case is "Hope". It triggers the "Slowly I Turned" The composite U.S. has not lost Hope so this is relatively an easy one for us to OverCome. For we, the composite We, will overcome.

It is the composite attitude of the group that sets us free. We have Hope. We shall Overcome.

--- 30 ---
=========================

A few additional comments by the author
That was not the situation of the Depression. The composite had no Hope and required Leadership to address the Loser attiture. It was done then through Leadership.
Thankfully we do not have the Lack of Hope problem to solve now as that is a really tough one to address, and it takes lots more time.

Starting from a platform already of composite Hope, I do not believe we will slump backwards. I would hope that Idaho could be counted among us with Hope.

New construction is beginning to happen. In locations where jobs were gone because they were primarily forefront industries related to innovation, there are beginning to be new venture capital backing those forefront actions. Thoughts are of moving foreward. However, while we are now expending some energy too to protect our flanks. Actions that maybe we should have been doing before too.

I see a country full of Hope. A Hope, a creative Hope, creating better for tomorrow, that is Why i do not think/believe we will slump back to the mundane. The lows of October 2002. Particularily in any near-term action.

Thanks Larry, I appreciate your asking, sincerely, Chichi2.
============================================================
============================================================

My earliest LONG TERM forecast on this board was for SPX to eventually achieve 1139 was on July 7, 2003, it still seems a good forecast. here is the chart from post #9. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[h,a]dbclyiay[d20020609,20031231][pb50!b200!f][vc...

I did not make a LONG TERM DOW Forecast at that time but if I had it would have been about 9050 -7200 + 9050 = 10900 Using the same chart for DOW of its inverted H&S. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$indu,uu[h,a]dbclyiay[d20020609,20031231][pb50!b200!f][v...

Obviously with creep and psych effects to reach a "000", that makes 11000 a logical round number...

Thus, your 11000 forecast seems logical to me.
=============================================================

As i alluded to earlier.--
My 2003 forecast for DOW was given on July 13, 2003 in a reply to LANA's request for a review of her DOW Forecast. this is what i said... it is in Post #109.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=1198082

In net is says:

There is also Another POSSIBILITY 1, Alternative to check:
(3)

If Wave 4 is now operating in the ABC or DE corrective pattern, then it is possible that it is a less probable 0.236 to 0.382 retracement.

If so, Wave 4's deepest may have already been seen, as it would be 8870, or a bit more to 8825.

If so, then Wave5 would probably take us to 10K.
================================================

I think POSSIBILITY 1, Alternative (3) is most probable.

Yes, i forecasted 10K July 13, 2003 in my reply to Lana on this board. This being the forecast for the shorter term move.