Biotech Values

[spartex]

DNDN survey

<Approximately one third of the voters are more bearish than I am and think an approvable letter requiring 9902b is not just possible but the most likely outcome. By and large, the people who vote in surveys on this board are not dummies, so I would not dismiss their views lightly

Dew come on, your statement is somewhat misleading. You forgot to mention that this survey also had 64% who believe DNDN will be approved, or approved with minor conditions such as labeling. Your own estimates on an approvable letter are 35-40%, just a tad above the composite score from 71 votes. Therefore, what is your estimates for DNDN getting approved, 100-(35-40) or 60-65%? In other words, your estimates are fairly well in line with the "composite" scores of 71 votes. Since your vote only allowed us to say "approval" or "approvable" we couldn't assign a % for approval or approvable. My personal estimates are around 80-85% approval, 15-20% chance of approvable. I agree that it may not be smart to buy DNDN now, especially above $15 bucks until FDA gives final notice. And even if they give a thumbs up, there will be a lot of momentum players selling into that news.