Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[mlsoft]

Dan...

Longer term, perhaps during 2004, I think gold will surpass $500 but for now I will settle for finally getting solidly above $400. I still intend to lock in some profits soon now that $400 has been taken out (hopefully around $408-415) but if the expected round of profit taking comes in I will reload. I look for both the $USD and the market to decline during the first half (at least) and expect gold and gold stocks to do well in that environment.

Venturing out over the holidays, I noted less traffic in the malls than I had expected from listening to the mainstream media. The stores were so clogged with inventory that it was hard to negotiate the aisles and that pretty much explains the jump in production seen in the GDP figures. The key to everything will be whether or not this huge current inventory will get sold and my guess is that it will be a decent holiday selling period but not good enough to take down the inventories enough to prevent a large inventory overhang early next year. If that is the case, profits will be ephemerial and a return to recession will become a real possibility. If I am wrong and the economy does manage to sustain a recovery, I see no way to prevent a bout of serious inflation as a result of all the liquidity pumped into the system over the past few years, and that would be very bearish for the $USD and bullish for gold.

Good luck to you and thanks again for all the informative and timely posts on gold and various gold stocks -- and congratulations on your good stock picks in the gold and silver sectors.

mlsoft