Biotech Values

[iwfal]

Some comments on the magnitude of the efficacy of 1067 in delay of new onset diabetes.

The best treatment out there appears for this type of efficacy appears to be Rosiglitazone and it appears to have about the same efficacy (about a 60% reduction). But it has a significant problem inre inducing CHF with a HR probably well over 2.0 (if the ARISE HR had been above 2 it almost certainly would have been stat sig) AND it increases cardiovascular problems by around 50% (which raises the interesting question - why the heck take it?).

And the most popular drug, metformin, doesn't have the same efficacy, can't be taken by 20% of the population due to intestinal issues, and its efficacy on cardiovascular issues is poorly understood (although it is probably true that the medical community doesn't yet understand this - only recently did a randomized study come out showing the issue). OTOH there are other drugs that have not been tested yet in "new onset"

All that said there is no question that this is a complicated field - e.g. most of glycemic control drugs do not, by themselves, induce much extra CHF, but when added to insulin they significantly increase the rate of CHF.