Monday, March 26, 2007 10:09:20 PM
Market Commentary ~ Best of luck with trading
Market Consolidated during the last two trading days with low volume and finished today with flat after the reversal call during the mid day. As noted, I do not believe that market has topped from the recent "Double Bottom" reversal call with "W" formation.
Qs daily shows an up-TL resistance which was the intra-day high on 3/21/07 rally after the FOMC meeting announcement. After the huge rally, we now have three consolidation trading days in a tight trading range. As called intraday reversal earlier during the mid day, the intraday low, 43.63, was the 60m support. Qs closed at the intraday resistance near the intraday high.
On Qs 60m, it bounced off from the support which was the same as the intra low of the day. As we can see that it closed slightly above the intra day TL which is coming from the the end of Feb top. Therefore, technically, market up TL is still in tack. Even if Market trades to lower support which is 43 +/- when it broke above the 3/12 high.
SPX is also traded to upper resistance near at 1440. As we can see on 60m chart, it consolidated during the last three days. Having three-day consolidation in low volume actions is a positive sign for further upside. We need to see it closing above 1440. Again, I do not see any major technical damage to negate retesting the Feb 2006 top after filling the run-away gap with a possibility of new highs which is consistent with "Breakout Retest" scenario.
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DOW closed at a resistance, 12470, on 60m and daily 50dma. Therefore, we need to see it closing above the resistance to continue the recent upside momentum.
Nasdaq closed above 50dma and 60m resistance. Having said that, we need to see it trading above 2460 which is the recent three-day consolidation TR resistance.
In summary, while I am cautious at this point with a possible "Lower-High" scenario, I do not think that this is the ST top.
Market Consolidated during the last two trading days with low volume and finished today with flat after the reversal call during the mid day. As noted, I do not believe that market has topped from the recent "Double Bottom" reversal call with "W" formation.
Qs daily shows an up-TL resistance which was the intra-day high on 3/21/07 rally after the FOMC meeting announcement. After the huge rally, we now have three consolidation trading days in a tight trading range. As called intraday reversal earlier during the mid day, the intraday low, 43.63, was the 60m support. Qs closed at the intraday resistance near the intraday high.
On Qs 60m, it bounced off from the support which was the same as the intra low of the day. As we can see that it closed slightly above the intra day TL which is coming from the the end of Feb top. Therefore, technically, market up TL is still in tack. Even if Market trades to lower support which is 43 +/- when it broke above the 3/12 high.
SPX is also traded to upper resistance near at 1440. As we can see on 60m chart, it consolidated during the last three days. Having three-day consolidation in low volume actions is a positive sign for further upside. We need to see it closing above 1440. Again, I do not see any major technical damage to negate retesting the Feb 2006 top after filling the run-away gap with a possibility of new highs which is consistent with "Breakout Retest" scenario.
~~~
DOW closed at a resistance, 12470, on 60m and daily 50dma. Therefore, we need to see it closing above the resistance to continue the recent upside momentum.
Nasdaq closed above 50dma and 60m resistance. Having said that, we need to see it trading above 2460 which is the recent three-day consolidation TR resistance.
In summary, while I am cautious at this point with a possible "Lower-High" scenario, I do not think that this is the ST top.
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