AI
Thursday, March 15, 2007 10:51:50 PM
Hey guys. I run another board on here and was refered by a member on my board to check this one out. I'm not very familiar with Hurst cycles, but know a little TA myself from my own experience and thought maybe I'd join the discussion?
Funny thing about the market is how 5 different people can look at the same thing and come up with 5 completely different conclusions. Kinda like tax preps.
Anyway, the way I see this whole thing is basically we're simply in a very short term pullback here. I mean, c'mon, remember just two weeks ago when it appeared that the market was bullet proof? It's cycles like these that wisen up that attitude real fast. Not to mention WAY too much leverage out there. Many hedge funds are levering up 10 to 1 on some of these trades these days. That being said, the 1st chart I pose is a very clear shot of where the $NDX is - which those of you here know will lead the market in whatever direction just by the fact that it represents the biggest and best of Nasdaq - so, that's where the 'smart' money will run (or flee) on any sign of direction:
The next chart is a clear shot of the DOW and what it's currently doing. Most pullbacks of magnitude will retrace at least the 50% area. So, 11,700 to 11,900 should be considered your downside target. The question is, will we get the retest after it's hit?
Now the last chart I pose here is the current situation of the Q's. The Q's are clearly tracing out a bear flag that should set up a move to $40.50 to $41.80. Somewhere in there. And, that should be 'it'.
The problem with the market these days is that EVERYONE knows these cycle dates and the symetrical relationship of them to past similar periods. What has happened is that since so many people look for the same things, they become self fullfilling prophecies. Just like flags, head and shoulders, and support and resistance levels. But the damage on retracements in larger degrees are usually contained because so many are able to hedge via put buying or spread trading. (or of course inverse funds or stocks like the QID)
Now we all know about guys like Bob Prechter and Steve Hotchburg and the various doom and gloomers out there calling for this being the top and on and on. Bla bla bla.
For those of you who don't know, Prechter not only has been dead wrong since God knows when, he's called every large scale pullback 'the top'. I remember as a subscriber back in I think it was 2004 or 2005, they called for a major collapse in Silver. That was at $6. Well, the rest is history.
Put it all in perspective - we've seen a roughly 7% decline off of the all time highs (DOW) just two weeks ago. Hardly a collapse. But everything begins of course with one small step. Right? But don't count on it being this one.
That's my story and I'm sticking to it!
Nasdaq to 2750+ this year
DOW to 14,000+ this year
S&P to 1600 this year
Funny thing about the market is how 5 different people can look at the same thing and come up with 5 completely different conclusions. Kinda like tax preps.
Anyway, the way I see this whole thing is basically we're simply in a very short term pullback here. I mean, c'mon, remember just two weeks ago when it appeared that the market was bullet proof? It's cycles like these that wisen up that attitude real fast. Not to mention WAY too much leverage out there. Many hedge funds are levering up 10 to 1 on some of these trades these days. That being said, the 1st chart I pose is a very clear shot of where the $NDX is - which those of you here know will lead the market in whatever direction just by the fact that it represents the biggest and best of Nasdaq - so, that's where the 'smart' money will run (or flee) on any sign of direction:
The next chart is a clear shot of the DOW and what it's currently doing. Most pullbacks of magnitude will retrace at least the 50% area. So, 11,700 to 11,900 should be considered your downside target. The question is, will we get the retest after it's hit?
Now the last chart I pose here is the current situation of the Q's. The Q's are clearly tracing out a bear flag that should set up a move to $40.50 to $41.80. Somewhere in there. And, that should be 'it'.
The problem with the market these days is that EVERYONE knows these cycle dates and the symetrical relationship of them to past similar periods. What has happened is that since so many people look for the same things, they become self fullfilling prophecies. Just like flags, head and shoulders, and support and resistance levels. But the damage on retracements in larger degrees are usually contained because so many are able to hedge via put buying or spread trading. (or of course inverse funds or stocks like the QID)
Now we all know about guys like Bob Prechter and Steve Hotchburg and the various doom and gloomers out there calling for this being the top and on and on. Bla bla bla.
For those of you who don't know, Prechter not only has been dead wrong since God knows when, he's called every large scale pullback 'the top'. I remember as a subscriber back in I think it was 2004 or 2005, they called for a major collapse in Silver. That was at $6. Well, the rest is history.
Put it all in perspective - we've seen a roughly 7% decline off of the all time highs (DOW) just two weeks ago. Hardly a collapse. But everything begins of course with one small step. Right? But don't count on it being this one.
That's my story and I'm sticking to it!
Nasdaq to 2750+ this year
DOW to 14,000+ this year
S&P to 1600 this year
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