Abet Chichi2

[chichi2]

the Ord Oracle, Nov19


November 19, 2003

For 30 to 90 days horizon: Flat.

Short term trades, one day to one-week horizon: Flat

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What to expect now:

On yesterday's commentary, we said, "The "IQAUTO.com" web site that has the maximum pain readings for the QQQ and OEX have reading for November of 515 for the OEX and 35 for the QQQ. Since this is option expiration week these numbers have importance. The worst scenario for the put and call option players on the OEX is 515 and for the QQQ is 35." Today's modest rally supports the Idea that the OEX may indeed close near the 515 level on Friday and therefore there may be low volatility this week. We noticed the average daily volume on the rally from the low 10/24 to the high of 11/7 came in at 1.44 billion shares. The average daily volume on the decline from 11/7 down to yesterday's low came in at 1.30 billion shares. What this implies is that there was more force on the rally to the top on 11/7 then the decline down to yesterday's close. This condition suggests in general the up-trend is intact and another rally up is implied that should test the 11/7 high again. A sell signal could get trigged at the 11/7 high. Our downside target is still the 990 level.

Nasdaq Composite:

On yesterday's commentary, we said, "A gap formed between 10/27 and 10/28 near the 1890 level. The opening of the gap on 10/28 had volume of 2.05 billion shares and we tested this are yesterday and today and volume dropped by near 10% and implies the gap area has support. This condition implies a bounce may materialize near term and a better shorting opportunity may present itself later in the week." We think now that the potential bounce may last into next Wednesday before a sell signal is triggered. The volume studies on the Nasdaq have near the same statistics as the S&P for the near term a bounce to test the 11/7 is possible. Average daily volume will need to drop down to 1.67 billion shares on this potential bounce for a bearish signal to be trigged. Our downside target will be near the 1780 level.

GOLD Market:

The Daily, Weekly and Monthly "Price Momentum Oscillators" are all trending up now. The 81-day cycle came in on November 6 and marked a low (low came in Friday November 7). A "Sign Of Strength" came on November 12 and 18 and a bullish sign. Next significant resistance area comes in near the 115 to 120 areas on the XAU. The bigger trend is up.

We bought BGO at 1.05,1.17 and 1.28. We sold 1/2 this position for an average price near 2.75 for a 143% gain. The next target for BGO may be near the 1997 high near the 5.40 range. We are holding our remaining 1/2 position. We may buy back our 1/2 position near 3.20 range after the next bigger consolidation. We hold Drooy at 1.04, 2.23, 2.33, 2.42 and 2.74. On the monthly chart for Drooy, the Stochastic has turned up and implies Drooy should rally from here. We will see how Drooy performs on the rally phase to 115 on the XAU.

Long 10/22-1/2 position of CDE at 3.47. We have upside target on the current rally from 5.25 to as high as 6.75. Long MNG 10/22/03- 1/2 position at 1.72. We add the second 1/2 position (10/29/03) in MNG at 1.98 for an average price at 1.85. There is some resistance near the 2.60 level.