Wednesday, March 14, 2007 11:23:05 PM
That link in my other post would explain it better than I ever could... he really did a nice job of it... That was really what helped me to understand it.
As for whether its possible that you or me owns some of these fake shares, if CHNW is correct in that there are/were 1 billion naked short shares, it's actually "probable" moreso than "possible". Here's my understanding of it, but feel free to correct me anyone if I'm off....
Depending on when they did their inventory (NOBO list), their O/S count was either 3.5 billion or 4.5 billion from the numbers I've seen here... Adding in the fakes (FTD's) makes for a total of either 4.5 billion or 5.5 billion shares swimming around (again, depending on the O/S count at the time). So 1B FTD's in 4.5B = 22.2% fake, and 1B in 5.5B = 18.2%.
The theory goes that those roughly 20% of the shares have to actually be accounted for at the time of the cusip change. To account for them, the shorts that have issued these bogus shares get notice that they have to cover their positions, meaning that they have to buy back all of these fake shares. In order to actually buy them back, they have to get their hands on legitimate ones. With the big rush to buy back shares all at once (short squeeze), the stock pps potentially goes through the roof and we all retire in Fiji.
All that said, there are still some things that I don't understand... Mainly, what is the trigger mechanism that says to the shorts "you must cover, and you have 'x' amount of time to do so"... ? If they have to cover before the cusip change, what force is making them do so? If they have to cover after the cusip change, what force is making them do so and how long do they have? Granted, the rules don't apply because naked shorting doesn't technically exist, but to cover 1B shares when the daily volume is only 100mm is obviously not something that can be squared away after hours the night before the cusip change. Again, just my lack of knowledge here. Really not sure whether to expect fireworks or another day of even trading when the big change happens...
Would like to be pleasantly surprised though. :)
As for whether its possible that you or me owns some of these fake shares, if CHNW is correct in that there are/were 1 billion naked short shares, it's actually "probable" moreso than "possible". Here's my understanding of it, but feel free to correct me anyone if I'm off....
Depending on when they did their inventory (NOBO list), their O/S count was either 3.5 billion or 4.5 billion from the numbers I've seen here... Adding in the fakes (FTD's) makes for a total of either 4.5 billion or 5.5 billion shares swimming around (again, depending on the O/S count at the time). So 1B FTD's in 4.5B = 22.2% fake, and 1B in 5.5B = 18.2%.
The theory goes that those roughly 20% of the shares have to actually be accounted for at the time of the cusip change. To account for them, the shorts that have issued these bogus shares get notice that they have to cover their positions, meaning that they have to buy back all of these fake shares. In order to actually buy them back, they have to get their hands on legitimate ones. With the big rush to buy back shares all at once (short squeeze), the stock pps potentially goes through the roof and we all retire in Fiji.
All that said, there are still some things that I don't understand... Mainly, what is the trigger mechanism that says to the shorts "you must cover, and you have 'x' amount of time to do so"... ? If they have to cover before the cusip change, what force is making them do so? If they have to cover after the cusip change, what force is making them do so and how long do they have? Granted, the rules don't apply because naked shorting doesn't technically exist, but to cover 1B shares when the daily volume is only 100mm is obviously not something that can be squared away after hours the night before the cusip change. Again, just my lack of knowledge here. Really not sure whether to expect fireworks or another day of even trading when the big change happens...
Would like to be pleasantly surprised though. :)
