Sector Investing

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I've been on record for years expecting the bear market to rear its head again.

Now I'm not so sure.

I think we may have no more than 3 to 4 weeks of additional selling before a major bottom is put in.

Those high put levels cannot be ignored any more than the low number of puts should have been ignored in 2000. Consider this chart:



I can tell you for a fact that when the bull market top was hit in 2000 we had a huge disconnect that had continued on for many months if not years of uncontrolled bullishness. We have mixed sentiment now that is trending towards high levels of bearishness.

It might take no more than 3 to 4 weeks of additional selling before we find a good trading long term bottom. This is not a safe time to assume we will return to a long term bear trend.

I can provide additional charts that will support my thoughts if necessary. But obviously the market will do what it does. All I have to do is react as the opportunity presents itself.

I remain largely in cash.

JMHO, RtS