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Re: Dan3 post# 17980

Wednesday, 11/19/2003 2:49:13 AM

Wednesday, November 19, 2003 2:49:13 AM

Post# of 98415
Dan, Re: $7 to $18.50 in less than 6 months after you said it was a great time to sell.

Dan, the fact that I can change my mind on a stock shows that I have no bias one way or the other. AMD has hardly had a steadily inclining share price, but I've made some good money on it. I rode it up from $5 to $7, from $7.50 to $10, and from $13.15 to the current price. That's not bad.

The alternative would be for someone to be completely omniscient on a stock, buy it at the absolute low (around $3 a little more than a year ago), and hold it until the absolute high, which is some indeterminate time in the future.

In the real world, Dan, no one has the patience or the insight to do that. Most of the longs on this board probably have shares that were picked up at prices far more expensive than the stock is at right now. The smarter ones would have bought more at the lower prices, but another real world fact is that longs don't make money. No shareholder can make money on a stock that has no dividends, unless they sell their shares to someone else. Is that blasphemous in your eyes?

You say that you are a shareholder, but of course, no one can verify those claims, since you have never posted any of your trades. I think I know why, but I'll refrain from making it the issue here. My point is that in order to make money, you buy and you sell shares of a stock, which is going to result in some flip-flopping, depending on market conditions, competition, or other external forces.

I see too many people on this forum focusing on the positive, without considering anything else. What does that do, except to mentally assure oneself that their investment will be safe, when the reality is that their positive or wishful thinking has absolutely nothing to do with how the stock will eventually perform.

So frankly, I don't give a damn what you or anyone else thinks about my pessimism on AMD. I've thought the stock was a dog now for the past several years, and sure enough, the stock has been in the dumps, debt has piled higher, and losses have mounted as far as the eye can see. Now, I'm seeing a light at the end of the tunnel, and I've said so. AMD is making better decisions, they have more support from businesses who can help them more than hurt them, and the market has grown for them to take advantage of their current technology leadership. That all turns out to be very positive, which is why I currently own shares in the stock. If that changes - if Intel becomes stronger, if the market collapses, or if AMD goes back to their old habits - I'll take my profits and never look back, and I'll be on this board to talk about it.

That's also what I'd expect other people to do here if they are really serious about investing. Or, if you're serious about cheerleading, at least bring up some new material, not the same FUD I've heard from you for the last couple years. It's tired, it gets us nowhere, and we've probably had this conversation once or twice before. FWIW.
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