Yes, I still hold on to my Medarex as well as Sepracor. Apart from that just small amounts in biotech.
As for a prediction of a FDA-approval, I don't think I can come up with anything better than the experts already on record. Better than 50 % I would say. Or maybe even better than 2/3.
The problem here as always is not what you might be able to predict, but all the things one has never even heard of. It is those things, that hurts in the end.