Trading with Jerry Olson

[Jerry Olson]

FOR ALL THAT WISH TO READ MY LATEST NEWSLETTER HERE IT IS WITHOUT PASSWORD...IF YOU WANT A FREE TRIAL TO THE ROOM E-MAIL ME [e-mail]
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JERRY OLSON'S
"POINT" OF VIEW NEWSLETTER
DATED 11TH MARCH 2007
"MARCH MADNESS & QUADRUPLE WITCHING"

Hello out there all my cyber trading friends from around this wonderful earth we all know and love<g> I hope this note finds you and yours in good health & fine spirits. We pushed the clocks ahead, it must mean winter is over & spring is in the air, ooh la la!

Hang on to everything that is not nailed down folks, because here comes "Quadruple Witching in March". There is a ton of historical past data that have happened during this volatile week. Wild price swings are the norm. Twelve out of the last 17 March "Twitching" weeks have been positive! Then in 9 out of those 12 weeks the S&P 500 index has been "UP" over 1% by that Friday. Not too bad for the odds of what might happen this week. Then if you check all the "Weekly" Index & Futures charts we had solid bounces off the support areas on these charts and just might make a Morning Star Pattern come about by the end of the week. Here's the underlying problem though, on the Daily charts what we see is a backside bounce up into 2 overhead time frame resistance areas of the 20 & 50 day emas. That means we might get a quick down move first with maybe a 50% retrace off this rally top, to see what type of "retest" we get to the down side, and then buyers stepping in to the breach once more with verve and sparkle. Here's the keys to the kingdom everyone. The major line in the sand for me is now the recent low on the ES Futures at 1368.75. No if's and's or butt's! If we test it and hold or test it and fail you'll see some wild fireworks during the week.

Now let's just suppose we only retrace back down 50% off the latest rally last week and then turn back up and end higher then the top of last week? I would make a quick "guess" that we'd be back in rally mode with a retest of the recent highs a real possibility. Yes that's right even with all the P&F bullish Percents in O's, I just had to take a step back from the Greenspan blurb 2 weeks ago and over this last week or so think about what created this quick sell off. Next we now have new and improved things to worry about, financial institutions with bad loans, big deal right like they can't get bailed out? And add to this mix this emerging markets crap about the YEN and all the hedge funds going under because of lousy mismanaged trading of these derivatives. Are you kidding me or what? This is the biggest bunch of bull I have ever seen Wall(Fall) street conger up for a dumb excuse for a sell off. Give me a break will ya. Between the old FED chairman yakkin his mouth off and all this gobbledygook about the yen junk you'd thought the freaking world was coming to an end by the ferociousness of that Tues sell off weeks back. In all my years of charting the bullish percents I have never seen the NYSE BP reverse down so fast, and ahead of the traditional OPTI which usually leads the whole complex lower when "it" reverses first.

Let me tell you all right here and right now. The end of the world is NOT upon us. No we are NOT going out of business. No the banking industry is alive and doing quite well these fine days. For those banks greedy enough to loan money to marginal people or companies so they can charge higher rates, screw them they got what they deserve period ended. For every bank that goes under, and I doubt that's going to happen any time soon, there are 1000's of banks and lending institutions making boo koo bucks on us plain folks right here in good old America. Next there seems to be a great concern about China and what they're going to do with us here in the states. Well let me tell you what their going to do folks. Send as much money to our markets as they possibly can, using the bond markets, etf's and yes even stocks to bolster their own holdings in China. Are you kidding me? You think they are a stupid society? You better think again and a lot harder. They are some of the smartest and shrewdest hardest working and productive people on this planet. Make no mistake about their intentions of making a profit off the worlds market place, and then taking those hard fought gains and re investing right here in the US OF A. Heck my money is on China in a big way. So let's call it like we see it. I am one wild raging bull, what with Goldilocks alive and well, interest rates lower then sludge, bond markets rallying each week pushing rates lower and lower, and the good old American consumer spending their wittle hearts out, how the hell are we going in to the abyss huh? Corrections are thing of beauty, because they create only "buying" opportunities for those folks that MISSED the rally for the last 9 months. YOU ALL GOT THAT? Now let's not hide our heads in the sand since trading the markets are our life's breath. Wake up and smell the coffee folks, it's only the beginning of good things lying just ahead of all this volatility. Let them shake rattle and roll, who really cares! Get your acts together and play for the team everyone. Else why do it at all.
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THE PASSWORD FOR THIS WEEK IS xxxxxxxxx thats with 2 d's lower case letters one word.

DJIA---YOU KNOW POINT & FIGURE IS A WONDERFUL TA, YOU SHOULD ALL TRY IT OUT. HERE'S THE CHART FOR THE DJIA. 12,400 A DOUBLE TOP BUY SIGNAL, WITH A BREAK OF 12,000 A SELL SIGNAL SIMPLE AS CAN BE ! http://www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com/OJ1.gif

NASD-COMP---ANOTHER EASY CHART TO READ, ANY BREAK OF 2410 THAT'S A BUY SIGNAL OR A REVERSAL BACK DOWN AT 2370 COULD BE A HIGHER LOW. IF WE BREAK BELOW 2340 THEN 2280 COMES INTO PLAY http://www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com/OJ2.gif

NDX---A REVERSAL PRINT BACK UP OF 1780 WOULD SET UP THIS VERY NICE "SHAKEOUT" PATTERN ON THIS CHART MEANING BULLISH. ANY REAL BREAK DOWN BELOW 1690 WOULD GET US THE 1640 QUICKLY. http://www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com/OJ3.gif

RUT 2000 SMALL CAPS---HAMMERED ON THE WEEKLY CANDLE CHART NICELY. ONE MORE WEEKLY CANDLE LIKE THAT AND WE'RE OFF TO THE RACES AGAIN http://www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com/OJ4.gif

SOX INDEX---WELL WELL HE SAID TO DA TROOPS, HOW ABOUT THIS LITTLE OLE' SOX INDEX THAT WAS LAGGING THE WHOLE MARKET FOR MONTHS ON END. IT'S NOW ACTUALLY LEADING FOLKS. REVERSED BACK UP AT 475 AND IS WITHIN 20 LOUSY POINTS OF ONE WHALE OF A MAJOR BREAKOUT. YA GOTTA LOVE THIS. http://www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com/OJ5.gif

GOLD CONTINUOUS CHART---I REALLY LIKE GOLD HERE FOR A RUN TO THE TOP OFF EXCELLENT SUPPORT THE HUI BOUNCED OFF THE BSL LINE AND THE XAU IS RIGHT AT GOOD SUPPORT TOO http://www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com/OJ6.gif

CL CONTINUOUS---OK SO HERE'S THE DOPE(SCOOP) ON CRUDE. EVEN WITH REFINERIES HAVING MAJOR PROBLEMS NOW, AND WITH THE EIA STATISTICS COMING IN BADLY, CRUDE SETTLED LOWER. WE ARE HEADING IN TO SPRING FOLKS MY GUESS IS WE'LL SEE CRUDE AT 57.00 BUCKS A BARREL BEFORE WE SEE 64.00 http://www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com/OJ7.gif

NOW FOR ALL INTENTS AND PURPOSES ALL THE FUTURES CHARTS THE ES NQ'S ER'S AND YM'S ALL HAMMERED OFF THE WEEKLY CHARTS. HERE'S A SPECTACULAR LOOK AT THE ES THAT WE ALL KNOW AND LOVE & WATCH EACH DAY http://www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com/OJ8.gif

SPX---MY PROXY FOR THE WHOLE SHEBANG. HMMM AIN'T THAT, THAT GUY SHE BANG SHE BANG? ROFL...LOL, IF YOU TAKE A MORE SERIOUS<g> LOOK AT THIS CHART WE HAVE BARELY MOVED BACK DOWN 1/3 OF THE WHOLE MOVE UP, AND LAST WEEK WE REVERSED BACK UP 3 BOXES... 1420 KEEPS US MOVING HIGHER OR 1380 REVERSES US BACK DOWN http://www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com/OJ9.gif

ALL AND ALL I AM AND WILL BE BULLISH TILL THE COWS COME HOME. THIS WEEK IS GOING TO BE A HUMDINGER!
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THE PASSWORD FOR THIS WEEK IS xxxxxxxxxx yes thats correct the markets are all nuts!
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KLAC---53.35 THE BTL---52.60 THE SST---THIS STOCK IS SOLID AS A ROCK 50.00 IS EXCELLENT SUPPORT WATCH THE SOX http://www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com/OJ10.gif

RMBS---20.60 THE BTL---19.95 THE SST---NOT MUCH FRIDAY AS EXPECTED BUT HANG IN THERE FOLKS http://www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com/OJ11.gif

CROX---45.90 THE BTL---45.00 THE SST---3 WEEKLY RED BARS AND NOW A BLUE ONE? ONLY DA SHADOW AND CRAMER KNOWS FOR SURE http://www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com/OJ12.gif

SNDK---39.80 THE BTL---39.00 THE SST---LIKE THE OLD COMMERCIAL "I'VE FALLEN AND I CAN'T GET UP"<G> http://www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com/OJ13.gif

AMZN---39.15 THE BTL---38.50 THE SST---ACTUALLY RALLIED LATE FRIDAY ENDING ON A GOOD NOTE MIGHT BE A LONG

HANS---34.90 THE BTL---34.10 THE SST---LOOKS LIKE IT'S STARTING A NEW RUN HERE MARKET WILLING BEEN DEAD FOR WEEKS

SMH---34.85 THE BTL---34.25 THE SST---IF I AM RIGHT ABOUT THE SEMIS THEN 35.00 IS THE REVERSAL BACK UP WITH 36.00 THE BIGGEST EXPLOSION HEARD ROUND THE WORLD. LOOK AT THIS ELONGATED SIDEWAYS BASE BUILDING STEAM FOLKS http://www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com/OJ14.gif

NTRI---48.05 THE BTL---47.30 THE SST---SEEMS TO BE STABILIZING HERE MIGHT MAKE A GOOD LONG PLAY

VLO---60.60 THE BTL---59.95 THE SST---WHILE THIS CHART LOOKS GREAT IT LOOKS TOO GOOD IF YOU ASK ME. IF I AM RIGHT ON CRUDE SHORT THIS STOCK http://www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com/OJ15.gif

NVDA---30.90 THE BTL---30.25 THE SST---VERY NICE WEEKLY STICK IF YOU ASK ME BUT WE NEED SOME VOLUME AND UP GRADES THIS WEEK. http://www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com/OJ16.gif
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OK SO WE'RE IN QUADRUPLE WITCHING WEEK AND LIKE I SAID ALONG WITH THE ADDED VOLATILITY WE ALSO HAVE A SLEW OF ECO REPORTS TO CONTEND WITH. I SUGGEST EVERYONE GET THEIR COLLECTIVE HEADS IN THE GAME...BUY A HEADSET AND USE THE MIC OK?

SEE YOU ALL IN THE ROOM

WARMEST REGARDS

JERRY & INNA


Jerry Olson
The Jog Group LLC
[e-mail]