UniCycive Therapeutics Inc (UNCY)

[Whalatane]

RMB. IMHO theres 2 critical factors to consider when investing in UNCY

The first which we have thoroughly discussed is chances of approval and filing for TDAPA by the July Qt cut off.

The second factor is what happens to OLC in 2027 when TDAPA coverage expires for the other pho binders and OLC is the only one covered for Medicare patients .
The post you responded to lays out the bear case .
Da Vita and Fresenius are financially incentivized to dispense the cheapest generics they can buy ...generic Selvemar for instance and pocket the difference between what the dialysis bundle will pay out and what they actually have to pay for the cheapest generic. .

So for the first 2 yrs in TDAPA , CMS will cover the cost of OLC to Da Vita to Fresenius ...BUT DaVita and Fresenius will only make about $36 per patient per month storing and dispensing OLC .
They will make far more $ taking the CMS bundle payment and only dispensing the cheap generic

So how does UNCY over come this .
By selling OLC to Fresenius and DaVita below the Medicare WAC ( wholesale acquisition cost )
As example
Say the WAC is $2,000 a month and CMS will cover this cost 100% for Medicare patients for the first 2-3 yrs .
UNCY will sell OLC to the clinics for $1,500 a month but the clinics will bill CMS $2,000 a month for the going WAC cost .
The clinics then keep the $500 difference per patient each month .

Thats roughly how this appears to be shaping up

Now with 6 monthly reviews CMS catches up with what the clinics are actually paying ...and revise their WAC downwards .
So it becomes an intricate dance where by UNCY discounts OLC enough that the clinics make $ dispersing its ...but in a stepped down fashion .
Eventually we may end up ...to use a phrase you are familiar with " fast nickels instead of slow dimes "...:--)
Make the $ off volume


Kiwi