Let’s find the hidden enchilada in this mess!
PRELIMINARY NOTE:
I’m not claiming that the figures given here are absolutely accurate — the goal is rather to illustrate possible scenarios.
For MBS valuations, I can only include rough estimates in the calculations.
SOURCES:
In my view, there are 3 (or rather 4) different “pots” from which funds could flow to former WAMU owners:
A) The Paladin / LT pot
This pot is distributed 75% to Class 19 and 25% to Class 22.
The breakdown within Class 19 is as follows:
Class | Nominal Value | Share
------------------|---------------|--------
WAMPQ ($1000 FV) | ~3,0 Mrd. | ~40 %
WAMKQ ($25 FV) | ~0,5 Mrd. | ~6,7 %
REIT Preferred | ~4,0 Mrd. | ~53 %
Within Class 22, there are only common shareholders. Out of the 1.7 billion issued shares,
1,210,617,755 shares voted for POR7.
B) The LIBOR pot:
It’s impossible to estimate how much of this would go to common shareholders alone.
C) The Wells Fargo aka MBS aka “Enchilada” pot
WAMU issued a large volume of MBS, and WAMU retained a percentage stake (20–25%) in these — both at the bank level and bankruptcy-remote structures.
All MBS continued running after 2008. No new ones were issued. The existing ones were likely serviced by JPM, but the mortgage payments legally belonged to the original shareholders.
HOW MUCH:
Regarding A)
Figures of $20B and even $30B have been mentioned. Based on that:
Example with $10B:
Step 1 – Split
75% Preferred ? $7.5B
25% Common ? $2.5B
Step 2 – Preferred (pro rata)
WAMPQ:
40% of $7.5B = $3.0B
/ 3M shares = ~ $1,000
WAMKQ:
6.7% of $7.5B = ~$0.5B
/ 20M shares = ~ $25
Step 3 – Common
$2.5B / 1.2106B shares = ~ $2.06
Summary table:
Total Amount | WAMPQ ($1000) | WAMKQ ($25) | WAMUQ (Common)
-------------|---------------|-------------|---------------
10 Mrd. USD | ca. 1.000 USD | ca. 25 USD | ca. 2,06 USD
20 Mrd. USD | ca. 2.000 USD | ca. 50 USD | ca. 4,13 USD
30 Mrd. USD | ca. 3.000 USD | ca. 75 USD | ca. 6,19 USD
Regarding B):
No idea.
Regarding C):
The MBS will eventually mature. Until then, they generate interest from mortgages.
According to court statements, these proceeds were invested in U.S. Treasury bonds. Over time, MBS income decreased while Treasury income increased.
You can model this using:
* MBS volume in 2008
* Repayment duration
* Mortgage interest rates
* Treasury yields
Based on $100B MBS, 25% ownership, and historical rates (2008–2026), the current estimate is:
Year | Principal | Mortg.Rate | Interest | Tr.Yield | Treasury Portfolio | (Billion) | (%) | (Billion $)
2008 | 25.00 | 6.03% | 1,507.5 | 3.74% | 1.51
2009 | 24.17 | 5.04% | 1,218.2 | 2.52% | 2.77
2010 | 23.33 | 4.69% | 1,094.2 | 3.73% | 3.97
2011 | 22.50 | 4.45% | 1,001.3 | 3.39% | 5.11
2012 | 21.67 | 3.66% | 793.1 | 1.97% | 6.00
2013 | 20.83 | 3.98% | 829.0 | 1.91% | 6.94
2014 | 20.00 | 4.17% | 834.0 | 2.86% | 7.97
2015 | 19.17 | 3.85% | 738.0 | 1.88% | 8.86
2016 | 18.33 | 3.65% | 669.0 | 2.09% | 9.71
2017 | 17.50 | 3.99% | 698.3 | 2.43% | 10.64
2018 | 16.67 | 4.54% | 756.8 | 2.58% | 11.67
2019 | 15.83 | 3.94% | 623.7 | 2.71% | 12.61
2020 | 15.00 | 3.11% | 466.5 | 1.76% | 13.30
2021 | 14.17 | 2.96% | 419.4 | 1.08% | 13.86
2022 | 13.33 | 5.34% | 711.8 | 1.76% | 14.82
2023 | 12.50 | 6.81% | 851.3 | 3.53% | 16.19
2024 | 11.67 | 6.79% | 792.4 | 4.06% | 17.64
2025 | 10.83 | 6.66% | 721.3 | 4.63% | 19.18
2026 | 10.00 | 6.24% | 624.0 | 4.21% | 20.60
TOTAL BALANCE APRIL 2026: 30.60 Billion USD
Split into:
C1: Liquid value ? $20.60B
C2: Illiquid value ? $10B
C1 could be distributed relatively soon.
C2 cannot — it would first need to be sold.
However, WAMU didn’t only have $100B in MBS. They sold around $500B to Fannie/Freddie (with ~25% retained interest).
Online sources suggest totals of $700B up to $1.2T.
That implies 7x to 12x the above values.
For a single WAMUQ share, assuming:
$100B MBS, 25% stake, Liquid portion / number of shares
? roughly $16.50 per share
WHEN:
A) Paladin pot
Bar date known
Paladin ends June 30, 2026
L1 share restrictions (RTK) also end June 30, 2026
Therefore, I suspect a payout in May. A June restriction until June 20 wouldn’t make much sense otherwise.
This would also imply the FDIC closes the WAMU case.
B) LIBOR pot:
After FDIC closes the WAMU case.
C) Trust (MBS) pot:
Wells Fargo must unwind the trusts — that takes time.
It could be interesting for RKT to acquire the C2 assets, since they are high-yield and have shown no defaults over 18 years.
Key question:
Will RKT already announce in Q1 2026 a purchase of C1 assets in exchange for L1 shares?
If yes, that would strongly indicate Wells Fargo is unwinding the trusts.
The exchange ratio for RKT shares is impossible to estimate due to too many variables (size of C2, valuation, etc.).
FINAL NOTE:
Happy to receive factual corrections or comments.
Nonsense will be ignored.
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