Doing the revenue math for $ECOX to understand what we are sitting on here.
Kepler GTL's proprietary gas to liquids platform is designed to convert stranded or flared natural gas into drop in aviation fuel and ultra clean diesel. A single modular production facility is designed to convert approximately 130 million standard cubic feet of natural gas per day into roughly 10,000 barrels per day of synthetic jet fuel and diesel, representing approximately 136 million gallons of fuel annually.
Gas into Liquids (GTL) GTL is economically viable and produces high-value liquids A 2024 study on flare-gas recovery at an LNG plant found that GTL conversion “significantly enhances economic returns” by turning flare gas into liquid hydrocarbons as found in this study.
Modular GTL platforms (e.g., Kepler GTL) specifically target low-cost SAF and diesel Kepler GTL’s modular systems convert stranded or flared gas into low-cost synthetic fuels including SAF, clean diesel, and naphtha, with economics described as “compelling” once the first plant is operational. As noted in this PR released by ECOX
Kepler has identified the problems with the industry: Aviation is still largely dependent on liquid fuel: Challenges are weight, energy density, and trip length (long-haul trips) Positive developments in hydrogen and battery but still limited by science Will be costly to transition to new energy sources Airlines are dependent on others in the value chain - aircraft manufacturers and fuel suppliers
Understanding the market potential: IATA (International Air Transport Association) Calls on Governments to Support Industry Move to SAF, November 25, 2020 * February 8, 2024 EU Aerospace and Defense Mandates all EU airports to start using SAF by 2025 * The game changer is SAF and it will fill the gap that remains to meet 2050 goals of 70% SAF * SAF are the only current viable and scalable solutions to aviation’s climate challenge. * Cuts emissions by up to 80% * Drop in ready fuel * 300,000 commercial flights with SAF * SAF is already mandated in the European Union * Long haul aviation will rely on liquid fuels out to 2050
Production Cost comparison: Jet-A (wholesale) cost per gallon to produce is roughly $2.50 to $3.00. GTL Jet Fuel / SAF cost is $1.50 to $3.00, depending on capital cost and natural gas price. Ultra-clean GTL Diesel cost to produce it $1.50 to $3.00, often cheaper than petroleum diesel.
It will be interesting to see if Kepler has found a lower cost as it relates to their process.