SELLAS Life Sciences Group Inc (SLS)

[Hoskuld]

This is my rationale for why I think SLS is an extreme asymmetric opportunity:
- the trial needs to achieve a hazard ratio of 0.636 to be successful
- HR = (mOS for BATs)/(mOS for GPS)
- the BATs group has already seen more than 50% of its patients die so mOS is set at ~11 months
- 70% of the GPS group was still alive in December and mOS now is at least 28 months and climbing each month
- at current rate of attrition, GPS mOS will be at least 37 months and IMO will likely be over 60 months

What this means is that HR will be at least 0,30 and probably will be closer to 0.15. This is a clear win - at least I cannot punch a hole in this logic. Does anyone have criticism that would be helpful in re-calibrating risk due to something that I am missing?