Fed minutes strike hawkish tone; Walmart earnings in focus – what’s driving markets: Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq, Wall Street Futures
February 19, 2026 6:17 AM
IH Market News
U.S. equity futures moved modestly higher on Thursday, pointing to a continuation of the prior session’s tech-led gains. Investors weighed hawkish signals in the Federal Reserve’s January meeting minutes, while oil prices climbed on renewed Middle East tensions. Earnings from Walmart (NYSE:WMT) and Deere (NYSE:DE) are also due, offering fresh insight into key segments of the U.S. economy.
Futures inch up
By 03:09 ET, Dow futures were up 30 points, or 0.1%, S&P 500 futures had added 16 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures were ahead by 86 points, or 0.3%.
Wall Street’s main indices closed higher on Wednesday, led by strong gains in Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA). The chipmaker’s shares were lifted by news of a multi-year supply agreement with Meta Platforms, the parent of Facebook, covering both current and next-generation semiconductors. Markets are also preparing for Nvidia’s closely watched earnings next week, often viewed as a bellwether for the broader AI boom.
Strength extended across the technology space, including digital storage names such as SanDisk and Seagate Technology, whose products are increasingly essential to AI infrastructure.
The rally helped ease concerns about when substantial returns might materialize from heavy investment in AI-related assets like data centers. Software stocks also advanced, marking a constructive session for a sector recently unsettled by perceived disruption risks from emerging AI models.
Fed minutes hint at hawkish leanings
Attention also turned to the minutes from the Fed’s January meeting, with investors searching for signals on the future direction of U.S. interest rates.
Analysts highlighted language stating that “several participants” would have supported a “two-sided description” of the Federal Open Market Committee’s outlook for rates — a potential indication that rate hikes remain possible if inflation fails to return to the Fed’s 2% target.
After pausing its rate-cutting cycle last month, which had begun in mid-2025, policymakers are widely expected to resume easing later this year. With the labor market showing resilience and inflation cooling but still elevated, some market participants anticipate another rate cut as early as June.
That view remains largely intact, though the minutes suggest the Fed is currently in “wait-and-see mode,” according to Capital Economics. They added that Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump’s nominee to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair and a known advocate of rate cuts, may find it difficult to “convince his new colleagues of the need” for aggressive easing.
Oil climbs on Middle East tensions
Crude prices edged higher as escalating military activity in the Middle East fueled concerns about potential disruptions to global supply.
Brent crude futures rose 1% to $71.04 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained 1.1% to $65.74.
Both benchmarks had surged more than 4% on Wednesday, marking their highest closes since January 30.
Reports of intensified naval and military movements in the Persian Gulf have heightened perceptions of supply risk. Meanwhile, expectations for any relaxation of sanctions on Russian energy exports diminished after Russia-Ukraine talks failed to produce progress.
Additional support came from U.S. inventory data. The American Petroleum Institute reported a decline of around 609,000 barrels in crude stockpiles for the week ending February 13. Official figures from the Energy Information Administration are due later Thursday.
Walmart earnings ahead
Walmart is set to headline Thursday’s earnings releases.
The retail giant’s shares have climbed sharply this year, pushing its market capitalization above $1 trillion and cementing its position as the largest company in the consumer staples sector.
Given the central role of consumer spending in the U.S. economy, Walmart’s results — particularly as it has attracted cost-conscious shoppers seeking lower-priced essentials — may provide valuable insight into economic conditions during the critical holiday shopping period.
The report will also set the tone ahead of upcoming earnings from peers such as Home Depot and Target. Together, these updates could further illuminate whether the U.S. economy continues to display a “K-shaped” pattern, with higher-income households and corporations maintaining spending while lower-income consumers struggle with cost pressures.
Deere also in focus
Deere & Company is also scheduled to report before the market opens.
Often regarded as a gauge of industrial activity, Deere warned in November that sweeping U.S. tariffs would significantly impact its 2026 results.
The farm equipment manufacturer is expected to see pressure on margins as a result, although CEO John May indicated that steady demand for forestry and smaller agricultural equipment, alongside cost-cutting efforts, may offset some of the effects.
Tariffs on imported raw materials are projected to reduce Deere’s fiscal 2026 earnings by roughly $1.2 billion, compared with an estimated $600 million impact last year.
At the same time, weaker crop prices and rising production costs have led many farmers to delay purchases of large equipment such as tractors, opting instead for rentals or used machinery.
Walmart stock price
Deere & Company stock price
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Original: Fed minutes strike hawkish tone; Walmart earnings in focus – what’s driving markets: Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq, Wall Street Futures
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