UniCycive Therapeutics Inc (UNCY)

[Whalatane]

Thx Fred , Back from a hike so some free flowing thoughts . Anyone reading this ...feel free to fact chk ...the following is from memory.

Around 80% of the dialysis clinics in the US are run by Fresenius and DaVita ...about 50/50 .
Fresenius has a partnership with CSL Vifor and has their drug for pho lowering ...Velphoro ...already on the shelves in the clinic .
Velphoro is covered by TDAPA until 2027 so 100% covered for Medicare patients .

Its in UNCY's interest to show rapid up take of OLC ...so one way to do this is to flood the clinics with free samples for say 3 mths .
Fresenius may resist or drag their feet on this
Why ?
Because the patent in the US is only out to 2031 . Some one should chk the patent life in the EU .
The shorter the remaining patent life ...the less interested Novartis will be .
So if you want to freeze Novartis out of a bidding war ...you slow the uptake of OLC as much as reasonably possible. .

However theres DaVita ....Fresenius competitor .
UNCY could flood the DaVita clinics with free OLC for 3 mths ...get the data and show it to both CSL-Vifor and Novartis ...as an indication of uptake .
The faster the uptake the higher the buyout offers .

Why do I think there will be rapid uptake if OLC is freely available. .
Theres no prior authorization hurdle ...that is the hurdle clinicians have to jump thru to get insurers to cover the drugs they prescribe .
Lupkynis for Lupus Nephritis is a classic example ......AUPH
AUPH has what may be ( although the toxicity is debated ) the best drug for LN . However AUPH wants such a high price for it that insurers insist patients fail all the generic alternatives and then Bylestra ?? before even considering it .
This takes months .
Of the 50-60 at least LN patients within 50 miles of my wife's hospital ...she knows of only 3 patients on Lupkynis

So before the dialysis bundle / TDAPA etc ..UNCY would have launched a new drug ...a brand drug ...and the insurers would refuse to cover it unless the clinic provided documented proof that the patient had failed all generic alternatives ....and there are a lot of generic alternatives .

This is what makes UNCY and their drug OLC so unique .
Theres nothing to stop clinicians from prescribing it ..at least to Medicare patients ( and most dialysis patients...not all ... are Medicare )...as soon as its in their clinic .

There is no prior approval hurdle .

JMO
Kiwi