Biotech Values

[WorstLuck]

ADVM/LLY

I've been reluctant to include ADVM assets in the AMD/DR discussion for various reasons, but if the drug can be approved LLY is clearly capable of maximizing the opportunity. As noted, the outlay is minuscule for LLY and the CVR payments are negligible if conditions are met. Trial and registrational costs are manageable as well.

With the tender scheduled to close tomorrow night (Monday the 8th) price is reflecting about $0.70 premium for the CVR, which after allowing for all discounting and assuming primarily specialists holding, suggests maybe a 3 in 4 chance of approval and some chance of $B annual sales. That's more than LLY needs for IRR on the deal, 50% odds (coin flip) should be enough.