Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[navycmdr]

Full report release: Coming Soon - There will be no dilution

and both Argentine pensioners, provincial funding, and expansion

of credit to 48 million citizens to enter hyper-growth has arrived.

Argentina and Milei backed bet on American taxpayers and the

Trump comeback - and the job he came to finish.

TRANSCRIPT :

So, what do we actually know about who holds the real underlying common shares of Fanny and Freddy? What does the actual institutional landscape look like? Well, the reality is the public data is pretty fragmented precisely because of those tracking challenges with OTC stocks and the 13F gap. You often see different numbers from different data providers, but what we can piece together suggests the ownership is fairly concentrated among a known group of let's say specialized institutional investors who focus on these situations. Okay. Like who what does the data show?

If you look at the summary of institutional and mutual fund holdings compiled in the source material for FMMA table 2A, you see some big names. Capital Research Global Investors is listed with a huge position like 115.9 million shares. Persing Square Capital Management, Bill Aman's fund also very large at 115.6 million. Morgan Stanley Investment Management holds about 41.9 million. Altogether maybe 39 institutions report holding around 280 million shares combined and various mutual funds hold another say 150 million or so. Okay. So significant holdings but concentrated. What about Freddy for FMCC table 2B Capital Research is big there too listed with nearly 60 million shares. Then it drops off quite a bit. McCquory Investment Management at 1.1 million. PP Asset Management from Germany with 600,000. The top 10 institutions together hold maybe around 63 million shares and a smaller number of mutual funds hold about 61 million shares. Right? What strikes me immediately looking at those numbers, even the biggest holders like Capital Research or Persing Square, they own a lot, sure, but it's still only a fraction of what would be needed to fill that maximum Cedar authorization we talked about. Exactly. That's the crucial comparison. The largest known holders are nowhere near the scale of the potential represented by the Cedar program limits. There's a massive gap. It just hammers home that those authorized amounts are about future capacity, future potential demand, not about current holdings concentrated in these specific funds.

Couldn't have said it better myself. It's a ceiling for what could happen, not what has happened among these known players.

Okay, so let's run with that potential for a second just as a thought experiment. If you were to hypothetically combine the maximum potential Cedar shares with the current reported institutional holdings, yeah, what kind of theoretical concentration does that paint a picture of? Yeah, it's a fascinating purely theoretical exercise, but it highlights the scale. Let's crunch those numbers.

For FENMA, you take the 300 million max authorized seed to your shares, add the roughly 280 million held by institutions, you're looking at a theoretical pool of interest around 580 million shares. That's nearly half 50% of Fanny May's total outstanding stock.

Half the company theoretically spoken for between current holders and the seedier potential. Wow. And for FAFMCC, even more dramatic. 500 million potential Cedar shares plus say 63 million held by the top 10 institutions. That totals around 563 million shares, which represents a potential concentration of over 86% of Freddy Mac equity. 86%. Okay. So these hypotheticals just underscore this massive latent potential, right? The CGR programs represent this huge vehicle for future demand way beyond what the current big players hold. It really is about capacity, not current reality. Exactly. It's not what is, but it shows the sheer scale of the mechanism available to absorb shares if and when the demand arises. and understanding that potential is key when we connect all these threads back to Argentina's specific economic climate and maybe some strategic thinking down there. Okay, we've been deep in the weeds of Cedars's custody ownership numbers.

Let's pull back up to that 30,000 foot view again. Argentina's economy. It's clear this isn't just background noise. It's actively driving the demand side of this equation. Absolutely. It's the engine that recurring cycle of Argentine peso devaluation. It's not just an economic data point. It's a powerful real world catalyst pushing investors towards seizures because when your currency is losing value rapidly, you have to find ways to protect your savings, your capital. Converting pesos into dollar linked assets becomes almost a necessity. And this gets especially intense during high inflation periods in Argentina. Right. So the appeal of something like an FNMA or FMCC, even if the shares are trading cheap on the US OTC market, the main draw is that it's a way to preserve value against the melting peso. Yeah, it's less about betting on US housing and more about escaping peso depreciation. It's a defensive play. Okay, so let's put it all together then.

We've got an illlquid public market for these seeders in Argentina. Check. But the ability for the issuer, Bonco Kamafi, to do large private off exchange deals. Yep. OTC or private placements discreet.

Then the mechanism to convert pesos to dollars like the CCL market providing the fuel. Then the robust US custody system with BNY Melon, a primary DTC participant, ready to buy the shares on the USOTC market. Seamless execution and critically the 13F reporting exemption in the US, meaning these large accumulations don't necessarily hit the public radar screen every quarter, the cloak of discretion. So when you line all that up, it paints a very clear picture of how substantial amounts of these shares could be acquired and held very quietly, right? The whole system seems almost tailor made for it. It really does form a potent combination. You've got the discrete transaction capability in Argentina via Kumafi, the currency conversion pathway, the efficient US purchase and custody mechanism via BNY Melon, and the lack of mandatory public disclosure via the 13F exemption. It's a framework that allows for significant potentially strategic accumulation without broadcasting it to the world. And you add BNY Melon's specific role into that.

Not just any custodian, but the world's largest. With that $53 trillion under custody, approved by Fanny and Freddy themselves, offering certified documentation, sophisticated tech for managing it all. It's not just secure custody. It's strategic custody. Scale and subtlety combined. Precisely. It provides both the industrial strength security and the let's say operational quietness needed for potentially very large sensitive holdings. The entire structure supports both security and discretion, which makes it a powerful toolkit if you know how to use it.

Which leads us to this really uh provocative hypothetical scenario that are source material flags.

Yeah. One that ties all these threads directly to Argentina's current government. Yeah. This is where it gets quite speculative, but the source raises it directly. It talks about the potential for a financial miracle connecting it to the Milelay administration. Okay. What's the hypothesis? The idea floated is this. Could the Miley administration be leveraging these very mechanisms we've discussed using the high inflation environment, converting rapidly devaluing pesos, maybe between December 2023 and mid 2024 when the shares were particularly cheap to buy potentially hundreds of millions of shares of Hethnma and FMC common stock quietly having BNY Melon, the approved massive discrete custodian, hold them. The source connects this possibility to comments made for instance by Scott Bessant on the all-in podcast back in March where he apparently discusse the idea of transferring a large government stake maybe warrants into a US sovereign wealth fund. So the hypothetical is could Argentina under me be doing something similar using this seed ear bang melon channel to essentially convert Pesos into a potentially massive strategic holding of US GSE shares. All done very discreetly because of the OTC nature and 13F exemption. Wow. So turning lemons into lemonade.

Basically using peso inflation to fund the acquisition of dollar assets with huge potential upside kept quiet by the market structure. That's the what if scenario presented. It would be an incredibly sophisticated financial play using the unique conditions in both Argentina and the specific market structure of Fanny Freddy in the US. The source doesn't claim it is happening, but frames it as this potential financial miracle made possible by the setup we've analyzed.
It really does make you stop and think about the hidden layers, the strategic angles possible in these, you know, niche corners of global finance. You combine Argentina's economic pressures with this specific US custody and market structure and suddenly you see possibilities that aren't obvious at first glance.

It's potentially national strategy playing out via market plumbing. #outro.

Okay, so wrapping this up, what does this all mean for you listening in? We've taken a pretty deep dive today, I think, into this uh surprisingly complex world of Fanny and Freddy Cedars.

Yeah, we've followed the trail from the quiet trading floors or non-trading floors of the BYMA all the way to the central crucial role played by BNY Melon over here in the US as the custodian. Yeah, it really is this financial bridge built on layers and layers of plumbing. And hopefully we've cleared up that confusion around those huge share numbers or program limits, right? Not actual current holdings. That's key. And we've really unpacked how the US custody system combined with the lack of 13F reporting and the possibility of OTC trades creates this environment where big positions could be built up very discreetly, especially when you factor in the pressure cooker of a devaluing Argentine peso driving demand. Right?

And you know, we touched on those strategic possibilities, the whatifs involving the current administration leveraging this whole setup. So for you, our listener, getting your head around this specific custody chain, the weird liquidity, the regulatory blind spots, it's not just academic, is it?

If you're an investor looking at seeds or a global analyst trying to track capital flows or even just someone fascinated by how markets really work, this matters. It really hammers home that you've got to look beyond the headlines, beyond the simple data points. Absolutely. It's a strong reminder that the most important stuff isn't always the loudest. Sometimes the biggest moves are the quietest ones. So, here's a final thought to leave you with, something to chew on. You've got this potential for hundreds of millions of shares to flow through these seedear programs. You have a system, as we've seen, practically designed for discrete large-scale accumulation, converting local currency in inflationary times into dollar assets held by a trusted global giant like BNY Melon.

So, what could be the long-term impact financial, maybe even geopolitical on Fanny and Freddy themselves, if a significant chunk of that authorized potential was actually acquired, maybe during periods of peak Argentine demand. It just shows that even in what look like obscure market corners, massive strategic potential can be hiding, just waiting for the right circumstances and the right players to bring it into the