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Monday, September 08, 2025 2:48:11 PM
Based on current analyst views (adjusted for the merger) and market forecasts, here's my reasoned expectation for post-merger RKT PPS:
Timeframe / Expected RKT PPS Range / Key Assumptions and Rationale
Short-Term (Post-Closure to End-2025) $18-22
Merger closes Q4 2025; initial synergies boost Q4 earnings, but integration costs and flat housing prices cap upside. Current analyst averages are ~$17-18, with some at $14-17.55 reflecting caution on rates staying ~6.4-6.7%.
Equivalent for original COOP holders: $198-242 (11× range).
Medium-Term (2026) $22-30
Rates ease to ~6% by year-end, sparking moderate refi and purchase growth; combined entity captures efficiencies, potentially adding 10-15% to EPS. Housing market stabilizes with flat-to-1% price growth, supporting servicing income. Upside if supply increases; downside if affordability worsens.
Equivalent for original COOP holders: $242-330.
Long-Term (2027 and Beyond) $30-45
Assuming stable growth (1.6-2% home prices, rates at 5.5-6.2%), the merged RKT could see 15-20% annual revenue growth from scale and tech (e.g., AI-driven originations). This doubles from current PPS, aligning with prior projection, but tempered by forecasts of muted overall market rebound. Higher end if rates hit low-5%; risks from recession or inventory glut.
Equivalent for original COOP holders: $330-495.
These estimates assume no major disruptions (e.g., economic downturn) and factor in the merger's value creation, but they're not guarantees—actual outcomes depend on execution, rate paths, and housing supply dynamics. Analysts are generally neutral/hold on RKT pre-merger, with targets lagging current prices, suggesting market skepticism until synergies prove out.
If the housing market grows faster than forecasted (e.g., due to policy changes boosting supply), RKT could exceed $45 by 2027.
THIS IS JUST MY PERSONAL OPINION AND NO INVESTMENT ADVICE!
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