So, because I previously forgot to add in the extra three day transition period (MHRA guidance) after each NWBO response to (possibly) three RFIs, the maximum date for an MHRA decision moves more accurately from October 2 to October 11 in order to be considered still “on time” by both NWBO and MHRA.
We know LP made a very big deal (truth is stranger than fiction) about MHRA getting their first response out late (due to their prior backlog) as she didn’t have it yet. (Who does that???) She did this on June 30, 2024. (Who sets that???)
MHRA was at least 24 days late getting their first RFI out. (I’m now guessing it was 24 or 25 days).
If MHRA is not currently formally late with a final decision on the DCVax-l maa yet, but will ultimately be late by 24 days beyond October 11, 2025, the MAA decision could bafflingly come exactly on ten years to the day from the last patient randomized — uncanny — (apparently about) November 4, 2025(?). (Yes, I cynically recently somewhat suspect but can’t prove this might have been NWBO’s plan all along for many years).
Puts a cloud over my prior maximum date projection of October 2, 2025, but what could be a silver lining? Perhaps intent to file the evidence submission to NICE on that date? They’ve known for a long time (months) what those KM and survival numbers could be within no more than a margin of about 1 patient imo, so all the permutations have been long since calculated, imo.
(I still believe if this was LG’s and LP’s plan for years, then they should refund half their securities, imo, because ten years from last patient’s randomization is/was not consistent with their public communications about timelines over the same period. I’m still hoping this wasn’t the case.)