Niocorp Developments Ltd (NB)

[PutzMueler]

If I get 1 or more likes on this message before the 15 minutes to edit is up then I will paste a comparison I asked Google Gemini to guesstimate using all numbers from todays mineral prices as if NioCorp was under full production, using MP Materials as a real time market comparison
Comes with a realistic SP Expectation IMO

See below

Compare NioCorp and MP Materials current share price while in production, as if NioCorp was in full production And at all current mineral prices. Then put a share price on NioCorp to compare with MP Materials current share price.



Predicting a company's future share price is a complex task that involves many variables and is typically done by financial analysts using sophisticated models. It is not possible for me to provide a definitive future share price for NioCorp. However, I can provide a comparison and a theoretical valuation based on publicly available information and a common valuation method.

Current Share Prices

As of Sunday, August 3, 2025, the most recent closing share prices for the two companies are:

NioCorp Developments (NASDAQ: NB): approximately $3.16 per share.

MP Materials (NYSE: MP): approximately $63.72 per share.

It's important to note that NioCorp is currently a development-stage company and not yet in production, while MP Materials is an operating company with revenue. This difference is a key factor in their current valuations.

Theoretical Comparison and Valuation

To create a theoretical comparison, we can use a valuation multiple like the Price-to-Revenue (P/R) ratio. This method compares a company's market capitalization to its annual revenue. We can apply MP Materials' P/R ratio to NioCorp's projected annual revenue at full production to estimate a potential market capitalization and, subsequently, a share price.

Here's how we can perform this theoretical calculation:

Determine MP Materials' Current P/R Ratio:

MP Materials' current market capitalization is approximately $11.28 billion.

MP Materials' trailing twelve-month revenue is approximately $216 million.

P/R Ratio=
Revenue
Market Capitalization
?
=
$216 million
$11.28 billion
?
˜52.2

Estimate NioCorp's Annual Revenue at Full Production:

According to NioCorp's 2022 Feasibility Study, the project is expected to generate an average of $389.6 million in EBITDA per year over its life of mine. The study also projects a gross Life of Mine revenue of $17.6 billion. We will use the average annual EBITDA as a proxy for revenue for this theoretical model.

Projected Annual Revenue: approximately $389.6 million.

Apply MP Materials' P/R Ratio to NioCorp's Projected Revenue:

Theoretical Market Capitalization = Projected Annual Revenue × P/R Ratio

Theoretical Market Capitalization = $389.6 \text{ million} \times 52.2 \approx $20.34 \text{ billion}$

Calculate the Theoretical Share Price for NioCorp:

To find the share price, we need the number of outstanding shares. NioCorp's most recent market cap is approximately $190 million with a share price of $3.16, which implies a share count of around 60 million. However, development-stage companies often issue new shares to raise capital, so this number will likely increase. For this theoretical model, we will use a hypothetical share count of 200 million, accounting for future dilution.

Theoretical Share Price =
Outstanding Shares
Theoretical Market Capitalization
?
=
200 million
$20.34 billion
?
=$101.70 per share

Comparison and Key Caveats

Based on this theoretical model, NioCorp's share price could be around $101.70 per share if it were in full production and valued similarly to MP Materials.

However, it is crucial to understand the significant limitations and assumptions of this comparison:

Valuation Multiple: Using a P/R ratio is a simple, high-level comparison. It does not account for differences in profitability, debt, capital expenditures, or other financial metrics. NioCorp's projected EBITDA margin is very high (almost 70%), which would likely justify a higher valuation multiple than MP Materials.

Production and Market Conditions: This model assumes NioCorp successfully completes construction and reaches full production as outlined in its feasibility study, and that current mineral prices and market conditions hold steady. Any changes to these factors would drastically alter the valuation.

Dilution: The number of outstanding shares used in the calculation is a major variable. NioCorp's share count will likely increase significantly as it raises the capital needed for construction. This dilution would lower the per-share value.

Risk: NioCorp is a pre-revenue, development-stage company, which carries a much higher risk profile than a producing company like MP Materials. Investors demand a higher return for this risk, which can depress valuation multiples.

In summary, while a direct comparison is not feasible, a theoretical exercise suggests a substantial increase in NioCorp's share price if it were to successfully transition to a fully operational mining company with a similar valuation multiple to its peers.