When you’re modeling percentage moves from past announcements, how far back do you look for comparisons — 3 months, 12 months, or only during hot market cycles? Do older comps still hold weight, or do you mainly rely on recent trading behavior?
Do you size larger on a peer-comparison setup — for example, if a similar stock just did 300% on the same kind of rock chip or drill result — or do you stick to consistent scaling rules no matter what the market reaction was for others?