Biotech Values

[WorstLuck]

The arb risk of the deal falling through alone may not make it worth hanging on for an added 1%.let alone the opportunity cost of hanging onto shares and not rolling the 99% into some other investment

That's creative thinking but with BPMC trading at more than 99.5% of the tender price you can rest assured that the deal is expected to close and the only question is if it closes on time or gets delayed. If it's delayed they already have the price too high unless they are also pricing in something for the cvr.

As I said earlier, if the deal is expected to close on time there is not much room for a premium, call it .25 cents as a reference point. There isn't room in the pricing for the deal not to close this quarter even if you have the cvr at $1.50.

could be paying 6-8 a share for kit

the middle of that range is about 500M.

SNY was probably at 5 dollars, BPMC at 10-12, and they met in the middle somewhere and figured 7 up front and a CVR that is likely to be worth around 1 dollar simply because only 2 dollars of that can be realized in the next 10-18 months and the other 4 dollars is years out so pennies on that residual

How much of that speculation am I supposed to believe? At least discount time the right way.

Did you know SNY dropped their offer from 129 and a 5+4 cvr made in January?