Tornado Alley (PROG)

[fuagf]

UK first. Vietnam 2nd, China third?, or "a delicate truce." Vietnam, with a large surplus with US, so is (like some others) very dependent upon US consumers after cheap goods, said 25% would be very damaging, while they could handle 20%. Many manufacturing countries have big China inputs, some consensus suggests China is the target of Trump's tariffs. Vietnam, i'd say, with Trump waving huge leverage thanks to Vietnam's heavy reliance on US purchases held commendably firm against Trump threats. Seems Bessent and Miran are the brains behind it all.

"Has trump done Any tariff deal besides Vietnam, we are way beyond those 90 days.
In the meantime, the American taxpayer is paying much higher prices for products. "

His Treasury secretary, hedgefund billionaire Scott Bessent, has spoken of a “global economic reordering .. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=drPH94fio7E&list=PL0Gc4VoRItIro2S4e5ZuFCU_2kTFc3g1t&index=4&t=10s ” that he intends to shape to the benefit of the US’s elite. Trump’s new chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Stephen Miran, wrote a lengthy paper .. https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdf , A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System, shortly before his appointment. The latter is particularly ambitious – detailing how the US should use not only tariffs but also the threat of withdrawing its security support to compel its friends and allies to accept cuts in payments due from the Federal Reserve on their US Treasury bills. This would be a potentially massive loss to them, akin, in reality, to a US debt default. But it is tariffs that are the cutting edge of the plan – leveraging the US’s power as the world’s largest consumer and greatest debtor to compel other countries into a negotiation on terms.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/apr/07/donald-trump-world-economy-shock-us

Umm, the first supplied link there led to a corrupt embed, try picking that first between = and & bit out of it .. good, it worked...

Trump tariffs explained: what’s changed and why have Asian countries been hit so hard?

The shifting timeline of Trump’s tariffs, the most significant US tariff increase in nearly a century, has roiled global markets and caused widespread confusion

* Trump delays tariff hikes again but announces new rates for some countries
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jul/07/trump-tariffs-japan-south-korea

Guardian staff
Tue 8 Jul 2025 12.18 AEST

US President Donald Trump has ramped up threats to impose punishing tariffs on more than a dozen nations unless they can broker a deal before 1 August, marking the latest phase in his trade war.

The tax duties stem from Trump’s so-called “reciprocal” tariff package that was first announced in April, but then delayed for 90 days to allow for negotiations. That deadline, initially scheduled to end this week, has now been pushed back to August.

The shifting timeline of the most significant US tariff increases in nearly a century has roiled global markets and caused widespread confusion, with the US administration far off from sealing the “90 deals in 90 days” it had initially promised.

If you are perplexed by Trump’s tariffs here is the latest.

What has changed with Trump’s tariff rollout?

Trump informed powerhouse suppliers ..

[Insert excerpt from supplied link: The US has so far settled deals with three countries: the UK, China and Vietnam, and Bessent said there were over a dozen countries the US is still trying to negotiate with.
P - The new August deadline for countries without a deal amounts to a further three-week reprieve, but also triggers fresh uncertainty for importers because of the lack of clarity around the tariffs.
P - As the July deadline has approached, Trump’s officials have been racing to broker deals.]
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jul/07/trump-tariffs-japan-south-korea .. Japan, South Korea and 12 other nations at the start of this week that they will face tariffs of at least 25% starting from August unless they can quickly negotiate deals.

He also threatened to increase them if any countries retaliate, or tried to circumvent tariffs by sending goods through other nations.

Trump has kept much of the world guessing on the outcome of months of talks with countries hoping to avoid the hefty tariff hikes he has threatened.

The rate for South Korea is the same as Trump initially announced, while the rate for Japan is one percentage point higher than that announced in April.

Which countries are affected?

Fourteen countries have been given notice this week of the looming tariffs increase, with more expected to follow in the coming days.

The steep tariff rates .. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jul/07/trump-tariffs-japan-south-korea .. range from 25-40% with some of the harshest levies imposed on developing nations in southeast Asia, including 32% for Indonesia, 36% for Cambodia and Thailand and 40% on Laos, and Myanmar, a country riven by years of civil war.

Manufacturing hub Bangladesh faces 35%, while Tunisia, Malaysia, Kazakhstan, South Africa and Bosnia and Herzegovina have been slapped with a 30% tariff unless they can reach a deal.

How many deals have been made?

Trump granted a 90-day pause this April to allow for time to broker trade deals, but only two deals have been reached.

The first deal with the UK, signed on 8 May, includes a 10% of most UK goods, including cars, and zero tariffs for steel and aluminium. A second deal was reached with Vietnam last week that sets a 20% tariff for much of its exports, although the full details are unclear, with no text released.

Relations with China, after escalating into a major trade war, have reached a delicate truce.

US treasury secretary Scott Bessent said he expected several trade announcements in the next 48 hours, adding that his inbox was full of last-ditch offers from affected nations.

South Korea’s president convened an emergency meeting and its trade ministry said the country would use the extended deadline to negotiate “mutually beneficial results”. The EU reportedly aims to reach a trade deal by Wednesday.

Meanwhile other nations such as South Africa have hit back, with the country’s president Cyril Ramaphosa saying the 30% US tariff rate was unjustified given that 77% of US goods enter South Africa with zero tariffs.

How are markets and business reacting?

US stocks have fallen in response, the latest market turmoil as Trump’s trade moves have roiled financial markets and sent policymakers scrambling to protect their economies.

The S&P 500 closed down about 0.8%, its biggest drop in three weeks. US-listed shares of Japanese automotive companies fell, with Toyota Motor closing down 4% and Honda Motor off by 3.9%.

The US dollar has had its worst first half-year in more than 50 years.

“Tariff talk has sucked the wind out of the sails of the market,” Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management, told Reuters.

Why have Asian countries been hit so hard?

Countries in Asia have been hit with some of the most punitive tariffs due to what Trump claims is their unfair trade deficits – meaning they export more to the US than they import.

However, analysts have questions the merit of using these calculations .. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/03/trumps-idiotic-and-flawed-tariff-calculations-stun-economists .. and also suggested that Trump may instead be trying to punish China .. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/03/donald-trump-tariffs-us-administration-countries-biggest-rates-china-myanmar-mandalay , by targeting countries that receive substantial investment from the world’s second-largest economy.

Several nations in Southeast Asia, a region that accounted for 7.2% of global GDP in 2024, are also major manufacturing hubs for goods such as textiles and footwear, meaning they will be severely affected by tariffs, while conversely prices for such goods will also rise in the US.

What happens next?

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told a press briefing this week that more countries would be informed of looming tariffs this week.

Trump was “close” on other deals, she added, but “wants to ensure these are the best deals possible”.

However, the minimal progress on deals to date highlights what trade experts say is the reality of trade agreements – that they are time-consuming and complicated.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jul/08/trump-tariffs-explained-whats-changed-and-why-have-asian-countries-been-hit-so-hard