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Friday, June 13, 2025 9:40:36 PM
With Trump undoing years of progress, can the US salvage its Pacific Islands strategy?
"Biden seals 3 deals in Pacific islands as U.S. competes with China
"US and Papua New Guinea set to sign security agreement amid Pacific militarisation concerns
"Smiles and unity at the Pacific Islands Forum mask tough questions shelved for another day"""
Published: June 13, 2025 6.09am AEST
Author Alan Tidwell
Director, Center for Australian, New Zealand and Pacific Studies, Georgetown University
Disclosure statement
Alan Tidwell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Partners...
Since 2018, the United States has worked, albeit often haltingly, to regain its footing with Pacific Island countries. It’s done this largely by reflecting a sentiment familiar in Pacific capitals: the region is not a geopolitical backwater, but a crucial strategic zone in the 21st century.
Spurred by China’s strategic expansion – security deals, port access, political influence – the first Trump presidency and then the Biden administration renewed the US focus on the Pacific.
Washington was also prodded by regional allies, including New Zealand. In 2018, Foreign Minister Winston Peters .. https://www.beehive.govt.nz/speech/pacific-partnerships-georgetown-address-washington-dc .. said: “We unashamedly ask for the United States to engage more and we think it is in your vital interests to do so. And time is of the essence.”
Building on the tentative steps of its predecessor, the Biden administration acted. It opened new embassies, invited Pacific leaders to the White House, unveiled a dedicated strategy for the Pacific Islands .. https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000183-86ba-d824-a1d7-a7bac17e0000 .. , and committed to recognising the Cook Islands and Niue.
It also negotiated more funding for the Compacts of Free Association .. https://www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/511389/us-delivers-crucial-compact-deal-for-freely-associated-states .. with the Federated States of Micronesia, the Republic of the Marshall Islands and Palau. Along with the 2022 Pacific Islands Summit, it all signalled Washington’s desire to be a better partner.
Crucially, the Biden administration recognised climate change and the economy, not great-power rivalry, as the region’s defining security concerns. Now, much of that progress is being eroded.
Don't let democracy run off the rails.
The second Trump administration has gutted key international development agencies .. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jun/10/trump-fires-usaid-overseas-employees , with the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and the Millennium Challenge Corporation shuttered.
More than mere symbols, these agencies were tools of statecraft, facilitating Washington’s capacity to compete with China’s “no questions asked” development model. Their removal leaves a vacuum, which Beijing will happily fill.
China pressing the advantage
Other signs of retreat are equally troubling. Congressional funding for the South Pacific Tuna Treaty .. https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/pacific-islands/international-affairs/south-pacific-tuna-treaty – which pays for access for US fishing fleets and is the primary multiparty agreement the US has with the Pacific Islands – was tripled by Biden, but remains incomplete.
Trump recently signed an executive order opening the Pacific Islands Heritage Marine National Monument .. https://www.fws.gov/national-monument/pacific-islands-heritage-marine , a 1,282,534 square kilometre protected marine zone, to commercial fishing. This might be welcomed by the US tuna fleet, but it raises questions about Washington’s commitment to the tuna treaty.
Hoped-for expansion of US consular access, especially vital for Pacific Islanders who must travel long distances for basic services such as visa applications, is in limbo. The US embassy in Vanuatu, damaged by the earthquake in 2024, remains closed, leaving diplomats to work out of their hotel rooms.
China, by contrast, has not slowed down. Its security pact with Solomon Islands, its police training efforts in Samoa and Kiribati, and its growing intelligence presence across the region show a clear pattern of assertiveness.
Beijing has proven adept at offering timely, visible assistance. Its diplomats show up. Its companies build. Its promises, however opaque, are matched with resources.
The result has not necessarily meant Pacific nations have “chosen” China. Rather, most revert to the longstanding posture of “friend to all, enemy to none”.
In a region where non-alignment is both a survival strategy and a principle of sovereignty, the perception of US unreliability makes China’s attentions all the more welcome, or at least tolerable.
Not a binary contest
The US now appears to be abandoning efforts to break this cycle, and the Trump administration risks a genuine strategic error rather than a mere diplomatic misstep.
More than distant dots on a map, the Pacific Islands control vast stretches of ocean, including key shipping lanes and undersea cables. Their diplomatic weight matters in the United Nations.
And the region matters to Taiwan, which is recognised by 12 countries .. https://en.mofa.gov.tw/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=1294&sms=1007 .. globally, three of which are in the Pacific.
[color=red]Some argue the US should press Pacific nations to “choose” between Washington and Beijing. But that approach is shortsighted and counterproductive.[/color]
Most have no interest in being drawn into a binary contest. They seek concrete benefits – resilience funding, fair trade, visa access – not ideological alignment. Framing relationships as zero-sum contests misunderstands the region’s diplomatic logic.
Listening to Pacific leaders
To revive the relationship, the US will need to show up, follow through and demonstrate its partnership offers more than rhetoric.
This would involve restoring some elements of foreign assistance, fully funding the South Pacific Tuna Treaty obligations, opening and staffing embassies, and supporting Pacific regional organisations such as the Pacific Islands Forum with meaningful recognition and resources.
But the US review of Pacific foreign assistance (a small portion of US development aid formerly administered by USAID) has been delayed once again, and likely won’t emerge until mid-July.
More importantly, the US will have to listen to Pacific leaders, who have articulated their priorities clearly .. https://www.wgtn.ac.nz/strategic-studies/news/css-news-items/navigating-the-currents-of-change-the-pacific-in-an-era-of-geopolitical-fluidity . They do not want to be sites of contest; they want to be agents of their own futures.
In short, the US will have to treat the Pacific Islands as sovereign equals. When Trump returned to the White House, he found a workable policy architecture for the Pacific. Its core elements could still be rescued.
But continued neglect, mixed signals and cost-cutting risk hastening the outcome China seeks – a region that finds Washington unreliable. Winston Peters, now foreign minister in a new government, might want to update his 2018 call for US engagement in the Pacific – with the emphasis on reliability.
--------------
70%
Support a project that strengthens democracy.
The conflict and chaos of 2025 has been alarming. When the news we consume is determined by algorithms and attention-seeking media, democracy runs off the rails. The Conversation exists to stop this happening.
We produce journalism that is sober, clear and useful. Our focus is on solving problems and we never turn up the dial on conflict to turn a profit. Our aim is to produce journalism that makes it possible to address the big issues we face, such as climate change, housing and geopolitical upheaval.
But we depend on the kindness of people like you who care about not-for-profit journalism to keep going.
Can you help us in 2025?
Misha Ketchell
Editor
https://theconversation.com/with-trump-undoing-years-of-progress-can-the-us-salvage-its-pacific-islands-strategy-258679
Can you imagine Trump treating Pacific Islanders as sovereign equals. For one they are not white.
For two, they are to an extent from what Trump has described as "shithouse nations":
Trump insists 'I am the least racist person' amid outrage over remarks
This article is more than 7 years old
US president condemned by UN and African Union, as ex-ambassador warns his comments ‘are disorienting for our partners’
David Smith in Washington and Kevin Rawlinson in London Tue 16 Jan 2018 09.03 AEDT
[...]
But his alleged comments continued to reverberate. On Sunday, congressman John Lewis, who marched with King for voting rights in Selma, Alabama in 1965, told ABC: “I think he is a racist …
“I don’t think there’s any way that you can square what the president said with the words of Martin Luther King Jr and what he said about Dr King … It’s unreal. It’s unbelievable. It makes me sad. It makes me cry.”
[...]
Patrick Gaspard, who was born to Haitian parents in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and was US ambassador to South Africa under Barack Obama, told the Guardian: “Methinks he doth protest too much.
“In the legion of absolutely outrageous things that this man has said and done, what occurred this past week has just tipped us over into a place of near insanity and this seems to be a textbook case of conduct unbecoming the commanding officer of the United States of America.”
“The disparaging remarks come in the wider context of Trump dismantling the foreign policy apparatus of the US,” added Gaspard, who has not been replaced in South Africa.
“These kind of sentiments are disorienting for our partners. They’re not entirely sure what to make of the American identity at the beginning of the 21st century.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jan/15/i-am-not-a-racist-trump-says-after-backlash-over-shithole-nations-remark
"Biden seals 3 deals in Pacific islands as U.S. competes with China
"US and Papua New Guinea set to sign security agreement amid Pacific militarisation concerns
"Smiles and unity at the Pacific Islands Forum mask tough questions shelved for another day"""
Published: June 13, 2025 6.09am AEST
Author Alan Tidwell
Director, Center for Australian, New Zealand and Pacific Studies, Georgetown University
Disclosure statement
Alan Tidwell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Partners...
Since 2018, the United States has worked, albeit often haltingly, to regain its footing with Pacific Island countries. It’s done this largely by reflecting a sentiment familiar in Pacific capitals: the region is not a geopolitical backwater, but a crucial strategic zone in the 21st century.
Spurred by China’s strategic expansion – security deals, port access, political influence – the first Trump presidency and then the Biden administration renewed the US focus on the Pacific.
Washington was also prodded by regional allies, including New Zealand. In 2018, Foreign Minister Winston Peters .. https://www.beehive.govt.nz/speech/pacific-partnerships-georgetown-address-washington-dc .. said: “We unashamedly ask for the United States to engage more and we think it is in your vital interests to do so. And time is of the essence.”
Building on the tentative steps of its predecessor, the Biden administration acted. It opened new embassies, invited Pacific leaders to the White House, unveiled a dedicated strategy for the Pacific Islands .. https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000183-86ba-d824-a1d7-a7bac17e0000 .. , and committed to recognising the Cook Islands and Niue.
It also negotiated more funding for the Compacts of Free Association .. https://www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/511389/us-delivers-crucial-compact-deal-for-freely-associated-states .. with the Federated States of Micronesia, the Republic of the Marshall Islands and Palau. Along with the 2022 Pacific Islands Summit, it all signalled Washington’s desire to be a better partner.
Crucially, the Biden administration recognised climate change and the economy, not great-power rivalry, as the region’s defining security concerns. Now, much of that progress is being eroded.
Don't let democracy run off the rails.
The second Trump administration has gutted key international development agencies .. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jun/10/trump-fires-usaid-overseas-employees , with the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and the Millennium Challenge Corporation shuttered.
More than mere symbols, these agencies were tools of statecraft, facilitating Washington’s capacity to compete with China’s “no questions asked” development model. Their removal leaves a vacuum, which Beijing will happily fill.
China pressing the advantage
Other signs of retreat are equally troubling. Congressional funding for the South Pacific Tuna Treaty .. https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/pacific-islands/international-affairs/south-pacific-tuna-treaty – which pays for access for US fishing fleets and is the primary multiparty agreement the US has with the Pacific Islands – was tripled by Biden, but remains incomplete.
Trump recently signed an executive order opening the Pacific Islands Heritage Marine National Monument .. https://www.fws.gov/national-monument/pacific-islands-heritage-marine , a 1,282,534 square kilometre protected marine zone, to commercial fishing. This might be welcomed by the US tuna fleet, but it raises questions about Washington’s commitment to the tuna treaty.
Hoped-for expansion of US consular access, especially vital for Pacific Islanders who must travel long distances for basic services such as visa applications, is in limbo. The US embassy in Vanuatu, damaged by the earthquake in 2024, remains closed, leaving diplomats to work out of their hotel rooms.
China, by contrast, has not slowed down. Its security pact with Solomon Islands, its police training efforts in Samoa and Kiribati, and its growing intelligence presence across the region show a clear pattern of assertiveness.
Beijing has proven adept at offering timely, visible assistance. Its diplomats show up. Its companies build. Its promises, however opaque, are matched with resources.
The result has not necessarily meant Pacific nations have “chosen” China. Rather, most revert to the longstanding posture of “friend to all, enemy to none”.
In a region where non-alignment is both a survival strategy and a principle of sovereignty, the perception of US unreliability makes China’s attentions all the more welcome, or at least tolerable.
Not a binary contest
The US now appears to be abandoning efforts to break this cycle, and the Trump administration risks a genuine strategic error rather than a mere diplomatic misstep.
More than distant dots on a map, the Pacific Islands control vast stretches of ocean, including key shipping lanes and undersea cables. Their diplomatic weight matters in the United Nations.
And the region matters to Taiwan, which is recognised by 12 countries .. https://en.mofa.gov.tw/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=1294&sms=1007 .. globally, three of which are in the Pacific.
[color=red]Some argue the US should press Pacific nations to “choose” between Washington and Beijing. But that approach is shortsighted and counterproductive.[/color]
Most have no interest in being drawn into a binary contest. They seek concrete benefits – resilience funding, fair trade, visa access – not ideological alignment. Framing relationships as zero-sum contests misunderstands the region’s diplomatic logic.
Listening to Pacific leaders
To revive the relationship, the US will need to show up, follow through and demonstrate its partnership offers more than rhetoric.
This would involve restoring some elements of foreign assistance, fully funding the South Pacific Tuna Treaty obligations, opening and staffing embassies, and supporting Pacific regional organisations such as the Pacific Islands Forum with meaningful recognition and resources.
But the US review of Pacific foreign assistance (a small portion of US development aid formerly administered by USAID) has been delayed once again, and likely won’t emerge until mid-July.
More importantly, the US will have to listen to Pacific leaders, who have articulated their priorities clearly .. https://www.wgtn.ac.nz/strategic-studies/news/css-news-items/navigating-the-currents-of-change-the-pacific-in-an-era-of-geopolitical-fluidity . They do not want to be sites of contest; they want to be agents of their own futures.
In short, the US will have to treat the Pacific Islands as sovereign equals. When Trump returned to the White House, he found a workable policy architecture for the Pacific. Its core elements could still be rescued.
But continued neglect, mixed signals and cost-cutting risk hastening the outcome China seeks – a region that finds Washington unreliable. Winston Peters, now foreign minister in a new government, might want to update his 2018 call for US engagement in the Pacific – with the emphasis on reliability.
--------------
70%
Support a project that strengthens democracy.
The conflict and chaos of 2025 has been alarming. When the news we consume is determined by algorithms and attention-seeking media, democracy runs off the rails. The Conversation exists to stop this happening.
We produce journalism that is sober, clear and useful. Our focus is on solving problems and we never turn up the dial on conflict to turn a profit. Our aim is to produce journalism that makes it possible to address the big issues we face, such as climate change, housing and geopolitical upheaval.
But we depend on the kindness of people like you who care about not-for-profit journalism to keep going.
Can you help us in 2025?
Misha Ketchell
Editor
https://theconversation.com/with-trump-undoing-years-of-progress-can-the-us-salvage-its-pacific-islands-strategy-258679
Can you imagine Trump treating Pacific Islanders as sovereign equals. For one they are not white.
For two, they are to an extent from what Trump has described as "shithouse nations":
Trump insists 'I am the least racist person' amid outrage over remarks
This article is more than 7 years old
US president condemned by UN and African Union, as ex-ambassador warns his comments ‘are disorienting for our partners’
David Smith in Washington and Kevin Rawlinson in London Tue 16 Jan 2018 09.03 AEDT
[...]
But his alleged comments continued to reverberate. On Sunday, congressman John Lewis, who marched with King for voting rights in Selma, Alabama in 1965, told ABC: “I think he is a racist …
“I don’t think there’s any way that you can square what the president said with the words of Martin Luther King Jr and what he said about Dr King … It’s unreal. It’s unbelievable. It makes me sad. It makes me cry.”
[...]
Patrick Gaspard, who was born to Haitian parents in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and was US ambassador to South Africa under Barack Obama, told the Guardian: “Methinks he doth protest too much.
“In the legion of absolutely outrageous things that this man has said and done, what occurred this past week has just tipped us over into a place of near insanity and this seems to be a textbook case of conduct unbecoming the commanding officer of the United States of America.”
“The disparaging remarks come in the wider context of Trump dismantling the foreign policy apparatus of the US,” added Gaspard, who has not been replaced in South Africa.
“These kind of sentiments are disorienting for our partners. They’re not entirely sure what to make of the American identity at the beginning of the 21st century.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jan/15/i-am-not-a-racist-trump-says-after-backlash-over-shithole-nations-remark
It was Plato who said, “He, O men, is the wisest, who like Socrates, knows that his wisdom is in truth worth nothing”
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