Savvy Trades and Investments

[wadegarret]

FTK up 70% in 4 sessions

Unreal, and congrats to holders into earnings this week. I personally almost never hold into earnings. However FTK is a rare example these days, of how stocks used to act almost all the time from 2004 to 2018. You see, if you have to hold into earnings to make out, you aren't making anything IMO. That is, my study on holding into earnings showed that you gain nothing by holding into earnings- in other words, it's a 50/50 proposition. Now R59 firmly believes you can know when the odds are in your favor holding, but I firmly disagree, and used math to prove that even if you're right 55% of the time, and wrong 45%, you could make nearly 100%/year doing nothing but deciding which stocks to hold into earnings.

So it you make nothing holding into earnings, how do you make out ? Well, you buy after a great report, if after valuing the stock, you find it well undervalued. You also look for any intra quarter news that can give new buying a quick gain. However in a market that doesn't reward a great report, or great intra qtr news, by rallying at some point, within a few weeks after the news, you will be lucky to be on top at all. I believe this is the market we're in, with stocks ie FTK being a rare story, where you could actually have bought after earnings, and made 50% in 4 days ! I mean I thought MD had a great report, and it went up 11%, and hasn't done anything since. CRMD had a blowout report, and guidance was super positive, and went up 23% on earnings, day, but has given back some since. I mean trying to buy a stock on earnings day, and wait till the stock gets to fair value has become a failure for me, with very few stocks acting rational. Now I'm sure we can recall some incredble stories ie KINS, TSSI, PSIX, BKTI, and now FTK in 4 days, but there are dozens which have gone down, when they should have gone up, and you can lose big, even after a great report. That sums up why I now have nearly 100% of past gains in fixed income- This market has become impossible to beat IMO !. Hey, but I'm still trying with the 2% or so I now have left myself !