Savvy Trades and Investments

[gilead23]

With the usual caveat that nobody knows where the market goes
There is some decent evidence on tariffs harming economic growth. I'm looking at one academic paper that ties about a 0.1% to GDP for every 3.6% tariff increase in year 1. These tariffs are going to probably be at least 6 times that. Those effects accelerate after the first year.
The Atlanta Fed GDP Now model already has us at -1.4% for q1 even when including the weird effects of gold imports.
And of course the market is expensive on a cyclical pe basis.
 On top of that I think the mercurial behavior Trump is known for makes adjustment hard. He may eliminate all tariffs next week or double them, who knows. Its hard for a business to plan when policy may change hourly depending on who pissed him off last. I do think he is ideologically wed to tariffs so I doubt he is dying to eliminate them. If you read the EO he wants to eliminate the trade deficit, and become economically self reliant. Thats his stated endpoint for rolling back tariffs. This isn't something other countries can just give him.

I'll just say I think caution is well advised. I think reit's kind of look interesting as an asset class in areas that aren't as economically sensitive. They should benefit from good dividend yields relative to lower treasury rates, and will benefit from lower borrowingcosts. 
I bet we see massive volatility based on day to day headlines both up and down. Personally I'm thinking I should focus on my golf game short term, but I bet we get some great trading opportunities with all thesewild gyrations.