AI
Friday, February 07, 2025 2:47:10 PM
Still Here.... Waiting with many... I updated my SPECULATIONS for NioCorp's financial estimates based on current market prices for critical minerals, we'll use the latest available data as of February 7, 2025. The prices for each mineral are as follows:
Niobium: Approximately $45 per kilogram.
Neodymium/Praseodymium: Approximately $90 per kilogram.
Terbium: Approximately $650 per kilogram.
Dysprosium: Approximately $450 per kilogram.
Titanium (TiCl4): Approximately $4,500 per ton.
Scandium: Approximately $2,500 per kilogram.
THE FOLLOWING SPECULATIONS & ESTIMATES ARE ALL MY OPINION OF WHAT NIOCORP "MIGHT" BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING -(Should they achieve the Funds to complete that "Early as Possible 2024 F.S., Obtain remaining contracts for the last 25% of Niobium Oxide, 100% of Titanium Production, 90% of Scandium Production, & 100% of REE's, or Final Debt/Equity Finance via EXIM, DoD, DoE, or other interested entities. )
1. Updated Revenue Estimates (Annual)
Niobium (5,000 tons/year):
5,000 tons/year × 1,000 kg/ton × $45/kg = $225 million/year.
Neodymium/Praseodymium (600 tons/year):
600 tons/year × 1,000 kg/ton × $90/kg = $54 million/year.
Terbium (24 tons/year):
24 tons/year × 1,000 kg/ton × $650/kg = $15.6 million/year.
Dysprosium (120 tons/year):
120 tons/year × 1,000 kg/ton × $450/kg = $54 million/year.
Titanium (TiCl4) (12,000 tons/year):
12,000 tons/year × $4,500/ton = $54 million/year.
Scandium (30 tons/year):
30 tons/year × 1,000 kg/ton × $2,500/kg = $75 million/year. (NOTE: ONLY CALCULATING for 30 tons out of 110T available until market or stockpiles allow)
Total Revenue Estimate:
$225M (Niobium) + $54M (Neodymium/Praseodymium) + $15.6M (Terbium) + $54M (Dysprosium) + $54M (Titanium) + $75M (Scandium) = $477.6 million/year.
2. Operating Costs (OPEX) & Capital Expenditures (CAPEX)
OPEX:
Assuming 25% of revenue for operating costs:
25% of $477.6 million = $119.4 million/year.
CAPEX:
Remains at the previous estimate of $1.8 billion for the project’s initial capital expenditures. (COULD BE LESS!)
3. NPV Calculation (with 36-year mine life)
Discount rate:
10% (standard for these types of projects).
Pre-Tax NPV:
With the reduced scandium sales, the pre-tax NPV will likely be closer to $3.5-4.5 billion.
Post-Tax NPV:
Considering 45X tax credits and Nebraska credits:
The post-tax NPV could rise to $5.5-6.5 billion.
4. Share Price Estimates (for different shares outstanding)
For 50 million shares outstanding:
Post-Tax NPV of $5.5 billion ÷ 50M shares = $110/share.
For 200 million shares outstanding:
Post-Tax NPV of $5.5 billion ÷ 200M shares = $27.50/share.
RUN YOUR OWN NUMBERS.... SEE HOW THEY COMPARE.... IF NIOCORP CAN SELL THE ENTIRE AMOUNT OF SCANDIUM EVEN AT $2,500/KG = $600-700MILLION in EARNINGS.... "Not TOO SHABBY" either way & compares well with MP Materials...
Niocorp's Elk Creek Project is "Standing Tall" & IS PART OF THE CRITICAL MINERAL & RARE EARTH SOLUTION!!! ....see for yourself...
https://www.niocorp.com/
Still standing by my $24/share once in production call.... Maybe 2028 or 2029 now??? Waiting with many still.... as a Skeleton in my front row seat for the 2025 Season! LET'S GET THIS DONE TEAM NIOCORP!
Chico
Niobium: Approximately $45 per kilogram.
Neodymium/Praseodymium: Approximately $90 per kilogram.
Terbium: Approximately $650 per kilogram.
Dysprosium: Approximately $450 per kilogram.
Titanium (TiCl4): Approximately $4,500 per ton.
Scandium: Approximately $2,500 per kilogram.
THE FOLLOWING SPECULATIONS & ESTIMATES ARE ALL MY OPINION OF WHAT NIOCORP "MIGHT" BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING -(Should they achieve the Funds to complete that "Early as Possible 2024 F.S., Obtain remaining contracts for the last 25% of Niobium Oxide, 100% of Titanium Production, 90% of Scandium Production, & 100% of REE's, or Final Debt/Equity Finance via EXIM, DoD, DoE, or other interested entities. )
1. Updated Revenue Estimates (Annual)
Niobium (5,000 tons/year):
5,000 tons/year × 1,000 kg/ton × $45/kg = $225 million/year.
Neodymium/Praseodymium (600 tons/year):
600 tons/year × 1,000 kg/ton × $90/kg = $54 million/year.
Terbium (24 tons/year):
24 tons/year × 1,000 kg/ton × $650/kg = $15.6 million/year.
Dysprosium (120 tons/year):
120 tons/year × 1,000 kg/ton × $450/kg = $54 million/year.
Titanium (TiCl4) (12,000 tons/year):
12,000 tons/year × $4,500/ton = $54 million/year.
Scandium (30 tons/year):
30 tons/year × 1,000 kg/ton × $2,500/kg = $75 million/year. (NOTE: ONLY CALCULATING for 30 tons out of 110T available until market or stockpiles allow)
Total Revenue Estimate:
$225M (Niobium) + $54M (Neodymium/Praseodymium) + $15.6M (Terbium) + $54M (Dysprosium) + $54M (Titanium) + $75M (Scandium) = $477.6 million/year.
2. Operating Costs (OPEX) & Capital Expenditures (CAPEX)
OPEX:
Assuming 25% of revenue for operating costs:
25% of $477.6 million = $119.4 million/year.
CAPEX:
Remains at the previous estimate of $1.8 billion for the project’s initial capital expenditures. (COULD BE LESS!)
3. NPV Calculation (with 36-year mine life)
Discount rate:
10% (standard for these types of projects).
Pre-Tax NPV:
With the reduced scandium sales, the pre-tax NPV will likely be closer to $3.5-4.5 billion.
Post-Tax NPV:
Considering 45X tax credits and Nebraska credits:
The post-tax NPV could rise to $5.5-6.5 billion.
4. Share Price Estimates (for different shares outstanding)
For 50 million shares outstanding:
Post-Tax NPV of $5.5 billion ÷ 50M shares = $110/share.
For 200 million shares outstanding:
Post-Tax NPV of $5.5 billion ÷ 200M shares = $27.50/share.
RUN YOUR OWN NUMBERS.... SEE HOW THEY COMPARE.... IF NIOCORP CAN SELL THE ENTIRE AMOUNT OF SCANDIUM EVEN AT $2,500/KG = $600-700MILLION in EARNINGS.... "Not TOO SHABBY" either way & compares well with MP Materials...
Niocorp's Elk Creek Project is "Standing Tall" & IS PART OF THE CRITICAL MINERAL & RARE EARTH SOLUTION!!! ....see for yourself...
https://www.niocorp.com/
Still standing by my $24/share once in production call.... Maybe 2028 or 2029 now??? Waiting with many still.... as a Skeleton in my front row seat for the 2025 Season! LET'S GET THIS DONE TEAM NIOCORP!
Chico
